RALEIGH – The national and international media are full of intriguing signs that the U.S. may soon be at war with the Baath-socialist regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. If an American ultimatum and/or attack occurs before November, it may have significant and unpredictable results on pivotal mid-term elections.
On our companion web site www.NorthCarolinaAtWar.com, we have posted a dispatch from the British news service Reuters about recent shipping arrangements (see http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=topnews&StoryID=1408419).
It seems that the U.S. Navy has booked a large ship to carry tanks and heavy armor from the southeast U.S. coast to an unspecified Middle Eastern port in the Gulf for discharge in late September. This is the third shipment of arms and military hardware in a month using commercial shipping, which military analysts say shows the U.S. Navy has probably exhausted the capacity of its own fleet and resorted to the open market.
Reuters noted that the movement of heavy armor from the U.S. southeast to the Gulf mirrors similar movements ahead of the 1991 Gulf War and could be a key signal that America is building up firepower in the region ahead of a possible military strike.
Other signs abound. The Bush administration has stepped up efforts to make its case to Congress and through the media. The president is scheduled to speak just after the Sept. 11 observance and is widely expected to make his case more explicitly. Expect to see leaks of information about Iraq-al Qaeda links in the next few weeks, and remember that they have already been reported in wildly jingoistic and pro-Republican places such as The New Yorker.
I favor action and hope that the administration makes whatever plans are necessary to maximize our military victory and minimize casualties and destruction. If that means moving before the elections, we should do it. Some may well speculate that an October campaign would be timed to boost Republican candidates for Senate and House. Unfortunately we have seen past military actions timed for domestic political consumption. I guess I am a little skeptical about this one because a military action in Iraq will pose as many problems for GOP candidates as it will opportunities. It will serve as a major distraction and reduce the value of Republican messages on other issues. It will give Democratic candidates something to carp about. And it will subject the president to great political risk.
Nothing may come of any of this, of course. We really don’t know. But as far as political motivations are concerned, I’m not prepared to think the worst of this administration. Feel free to try to change my mind.