RALEIGH – The U.S. Senate race hasn’t unfolded the way it was supposed to.
Late last year, after former Clinton aide Erskine Bowles got back into the race for the Democratic nomination, citing a change of heart after 9/11, the national media immediately began the process of anointing him as the presumptive nominee. It was precipitous. Bowles has yet to make much of an impact on North Carolina voters, as evidenced by the fact that the latest publicly available poll showed him with only a scant lead over his next-closest rival, former NC House Speaker Dan Blue. And Bowles hadn’t even cracked the 30 percent mark.
Part of the problem is the Bowles pitch. He’s hampered by the need to explain his resume. It’s lengthy, of course, but problematical. He has held top jobs in Washington, surely a plus as a Senate candidate, but the top jobs included cleaning up after one of the most irresponsible presidents in American history. Bowles also has a long and distinguished business career, only the recent turmoil on Wall Street has some Democratic primary voters suspicious of anyone with experience there (which is irrational and, frankly, kind of embarrassing for the party, but it’s a reality). So when Bowles touts his record, he has to explain too much. It’s too much work. He was supposed to be instantly impressive, if a bit boring.
But it’s not all Bowles’ fault. The Republican lawsuit on legislative redistricting, and Democratic attempts to fend it off, delayed all primaries for months. His original timetable was thrown wildly off. The extra time has taken away his momentum. Now, in the last three weeks of the campaign, Bowles has the most money to spend but an inattentive electorate who will soon turn their attention to the run up to September 11 – likely to feature new terrorist warnings, commemorations, and patriotic fervor.
Blue, on the other hand, has also not turned in the performance many of us expected. He never had to match Bowles dollar-for-dollar – an impossibility, anyway – but the former speaker did have to raise sufficient funds to be competitive in the homestretch. Some may view this as an unfair barrier to a good candidate, but frankly a “good candidate,” even in a crowded field, should be able to raise several hundred thousand dollars in a state with 8 million people and a fair amount of well-off Democratic liberals. There must be a lack of connection between Blue and these potential supporters.
Secretary of State Elaine Marshall will play a key role as this unpredictable campaign takes its last twists and turns. I doubt she can take the ring herself, but I do think that a low-turnout election gives her the ability to determine the result. The question is: Do Marshall voters come primarily from Bowles (New Democrats, party bigwigs, business Dems, etc.) or from Blue (liberal activists, the university crowd, labor, enviros, young people, etc.)? Don’t know.
Finally, Durham’s Cynthia Brown, an obscure candidate in virtually everyone’s mind, has a role to play. If she pulls in a few percentage points of black voters, perhaps just in the Triangle, she could rob Blue of the votes needed to pull off an upset. With no runoff, all anyone may need is a plurality in the low 30s. Blue can’t afford to lose his base, because he can’t compete with Bowles in purchasing last-minute name recognition.
You can be sure that Blue is working hard to line up a team of supporters on the ground to bring out his vote in key neighborhoods. You can be sure that Bowles’ consultants have spent nearly his last campaign dollar, and then some, in their media plan. You can be sure that Marshall will keep popping up here and there, scrapping for a little attention and relishing her potential kingmaker role. And you can be sure that Brown will have a very appreciative investment banker giving her a call, and perhaps more, should she poll well in Durham on Election Day.
What you can’t be sure of, at this point, is which Democrat will take on Elizabeth Dole in November.