The Coming of the Nine

RALEIGH — I’m writing today about the coming of the Nine.

No, this isn’t another shameless attempt to indulge my fascination with “Lord of the Rings.” And no, it isn’t Google-bait. It is, rather, a few comments on the first public battle of the coming war, a war that promises to be lengthy but perhaps not consequential. It’s the campaign to nominate a Democrat to run for president against George W. Bush.

I just watched the first Democratic presidential debate, televised by ABC this past weekend and held in Columbia, South Carolina. All nine semi-credible Democrats were in attendance. Though the event was structured oddly, and “moderated” by the unctuous George Stephanopolous, it nonetheless served the useful purpose of clarifying where the race stands in May 2003, with the Iowa and New Hampshire contests eight months away and the next batch of primaries — six at this writing, including South Carolina’s — following closely behind.

Here are the Nine, and what the Columbia debate revealed about them (at least to my somewhat tired eyes):

* John Kerry. He’s on track to reclaim frontrunner status. Of all the candidates, he’s the most presidential. He’s also the most Clintonian, able to shift among varying ideological poles within the Democratic Party without making the effort look forced or painful. Among the members of the nationwide audience of this debate, Clintonian is not an insult. He’s still got major liabilities, granted, but Kerry has the strongest claim on the nomination right now.

* Joe Lieberman. He has fully recovered his ideological moorings from his disastrous 2000 performance as the Democrats’ Pander Bear. A full-throated advocate of both wars in Iraq, free trade, targeted tax relief, incrementalism in health care, gun rights, and socially conservative values, Lieberman is probably the greatest threat to George W. Bush in the current political environment. No way, no way can he be nominated by the modern Democratic Party.

* John Edwards. Our own senator was back in his home state of South Carolina, peddling the same story about fighting for “regular people” and taking on the big guys. Edwards was the least likely member of the panel to get sucked into policy wonkese or inside-party baseball. This is good; even the political insiders aren’t too interested in what Kerry’s person said to Dean’s person, or what Dean may (or may not) have said to a newspaper reporter weeks before. It was a pretty good performance, but not stellar. He still looks like what he is — a freshman senator who could well end up as a vice president pick — not like a president.

* Dick Gephardt. His big-government health care plan got attacked, from the Left no less, by Edwards, Kerry, and others. Still, it set the agenda for much of the policy discussion during the debate. The problem for Gephardt is that he sounds like a dream candidate for the Democrats in, say, 1988, when he first sought the job. His agenda is old-school, pre-Clintonian, and just not salable in the present circumstance. I think he’s missed his train.

* Bob Graham. He got a lot of attention in the debate primarily because other candidates preferred to engage him, whom they know will never be nominated for president rather than giving their serious rivals more air time. Graham is, like Lieberman, not liberal enough — or at least not vague enough — to get the nod. He really is running for vice president, as was suggested during the debate, and has to be considered Edwards’ chief rival for the post.

* Howard Dean. Forget the buzz and the short-term boost from the leftists Dean got during Gulf War II. I thought he looked like he had the makings of a horrible candidate. He seemed rather odd and nervous on TV, and his defense of his anti-war position was shrill. He and Lieberman anchor the ideological span of the party. But the nomination battle is going to occur closer to the middle of that span, and that means it is between Kerry and Edwards, basically.

* Al Sharpton. Weird hair. Good humor. Actually not as nutty-sounding as several other candidates.

* Dennis Kucinich, for one.

* Carol Moseley Braun. Wait, was she on the panel?

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.