RALEIGH — Having caught some of the Sunday talk shows and wire stories in advance of the 10-state Super Tuesday extravaganza, I think I may have spotted Sen. John Edwards’ campaign finally jump the shark.

Jump the what? “Jumping the shark” is the (not-so) new term of art for when something has reached the point of no return, when the jig is up, when you’ve reached the top of the wave and are about to crash. It began as a description of the point of downward inflection in the arc of a television series. Specifically, fans of “Happy Days” were said to have known the show would never recover when a later episode had a water-skiing Fonzie … well, you can figure out the rest.

The image is just too much fun to limit to television, though there is a seemingly endless array of “jump the shark” moments at its official website, ranging from “Leave it to Beaver” to “Hardball with Chris Matthews.” I think the term and the image it conjures up work well for politicians, particularly as their campaign’s attempts at spin start to make everyone involved, including the viewer, feel about as silly as a paunchy Henry Winkler playing a “young” punk on water skis.

What Edwards supporters are saying about Super Tuesday is that he must win at least Georgia and Ohio in order to remain a viable candidate in the Democratic presidential contest. Uh, I’ve been both a practitioner of and an obvious mark for Edwardian spin over the past couple of years, but even I think this is preposterous. About half of all the delegates need for the Democratic nomination are at stake on Tuesday. Big states like California and New York are in play. No, Edwards is not a viable candidate if he wins just two of the 10 states with Super-Tuesday contests. He must do better than that — far better, actually, because otherwise the delegate arithmetic just gets too overwhelming to overcome.

Edwards has already beat expectations. He’s already one of the stories coming out of the 2004 political season, regardless of what occurs. Speculation continues about John Kerry picking Edwards as his running mate, with some new evidence that the ticket is appealing to many. If this happens and the Democrats beat Bush, Edwards is vice president. That would be an amazing achievement for a one-term senator with little previous political experience or interest. He could play an important role in shaping the nation’s public policy — both Al Gore and Dick Cheney did in their respective days, signifying an increase in the job’s importance — and would still be young enough in 2012 to seek the White House again. On the other hand, if the Democratic ticket loses, few will be likely to blame Edwards for it, and he’ll be a prime candidate for the 2008 nomination (against She Who Must Not Be Named) to win an open seat. And if Edwards isn’t picked for VP, he’ll either end up in a Kerry cabinet, I suspect, or a prime candidate for the 2008 nomination without any taint of loss.

As I have already observed in a different piece, the national Democratic Party has decided for better or worse that Super Tuesday is too late to decide their presidential race. In an odd emulation of the Republican primary calendar of 1996 and 2000 — you know, when the GOP went on to crushing national victories for president — Democrats loaded up the early-primary calendar so as to ensure that a few early wins would create tremendous momentum and catapult a frontrunner to additional quick victories. Edwards had a good chance to interrupt the Kerry coronation, anyway, but was hampered by the continued candidacy of Wesley Clark, who robbed the North Carolina senator of the chance to win additional Southern and border-state primaries. Whatever the goofy general’s motivation, the effect on Edwards’ potential challenge to Kerry was clear.

Another image that captures the moment is the classic ’50s science-fiction tale The Incredible Shrinking Man. Later in the film, the unfortunate man engages in some impressive heroics to defeat a spider and survive a flood. But there was no one left to witness them. This could be much like what might transpire on Tuesday night, when I’m guessing that solid Edwards wins in Ohio and Georgia will still be hard to notice against the backdrop of other important news, information, and voting patterns. It’s “American Idol” night*, after all.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.

* Which according to some (not including me) is already past the proverbial point of no return. From the website: “[“American Idol”] didn’t jump the tank, it jumped off the ramp into the tank and is swimming around with the shark. It is found that narrow niche of being so unbelievably bad, it’s addictive. The two hosts seem like the just lost out getting the Blue’s Clues job. Randy is Al Roker’s mean brother, Paula Abdul is like watching Diana Rigg host “Mystery” on crack, and Simon sits there making money because he’s mean, then he owns the contract of whoever wins, so he makes money again. This man may be the true antichrist.”