Here we go again.
After the 1964 election, when Barry Goldwater and the Republicans sustained an epic defeat, Lyndon Johnson and the Democrats thought they had established themselves as a permanent governing majority. Two years later, the GOP roared back in the midterms, and four years later Richard Nixon was elected president.
After the 1976 election, when Jimmy Carter and the Democrats defeated a Republican Party weakened by scandal and rampant inflation, GOP leaders despaired. Just four years later, unforeseen international events, a realignment among downscale voters, and a new approach to economic policy delivered a victory to Ronald Reagan.
After the 1988 election, when George Bush essentially won election to Reagan’s third term, Democratic leaders despaired. The GOP seemed to have established a lock on the White House, winning five of the past six presidential elections. Just four years later, unforeseen international events, a realignment among moderate voters, and a new approach to social policy delivered a victory to Bill Clinton.
After the 1992 election, with Clinton serving as the first Baby Boomer president, Democrats felt triumphant. They had finally found a formula for combining their unchallenged majorities in Congress and state governments with control of the White House. Their euphoria lasted a grand total of two years, after which the Republican Revolution of 1994 put the GOP in charge of Congress and many states for the first time in half a century.
During the Clinton years, both Democrats and Republicans expected the nation’s electorate to end its indecision and pick one or the other team. Their expectations were unrealistic. When Clinton’s infidelity and obstruction of justice led to an impeachment, voters condemned both the president’s behavior and the Republicans’ response. In 2000, the voters were so closely divided that Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won Florida and thus the electoral college.
After the 2004 election, when Bush finally did win the popular vote as well as solid majorities in both houses of Congress, Republicans finally felt like it was they who had established a durable governing majority. Their euphoria lasted a grand total of two years, after which two strong Democratic wave elections in 2006 and 2008 knocked Republicans back on their heels on all fronts.
After the 2008 election, President Barack Obama and Democratic leaders fancied themselves to be leaders of a New New Deal, and acted accordingly. They inherited Bush’s record of deficit spending and decided to double-down on it. They shoveled stimulus cash at every special interest in their political coalition. They forced an unpopular health care plan through Congress. The result was the 2010 midterm, featuring the largest GOP gains in Congress and state governments since the 1920s.
Sorry to be so repetitive, but it’s not my fault. Recent political history has been like the old summer TV schedule – lots of repeat episodes, most of which weren’t particularly smart or compelling the first time around.
As politicians and analysts of all political stripes analyze the 2012 election – which featured an impressive reelection campaign by President Obama, more impressive Democratic victories in the U.S. Senate, and little change to the Republican majorities in the U.S. House and state governments – I think they’d be better off reading more, studying more, thinking more, and talking less. They want to pontificate about how the 2012 election results are guaranteed to affect the 2014 midterms and the 2016 presidential cycle. But they really don’t know that yet. They can’t know it. It assumes information about the next two years of political, economic, and international events to which none of us has access.
They’d be better off focused on what happens over the next few months. There will be a budget deal between President Obama and Congress. What will it look like? The most sweeping initiatives in Obama’s second term will come from his regulatory agencies, not from Capitol Hill. How will they affect the economy? And states, run mostly by Republicans, will cooperate with the president on some issues and challenge him vigorously on others.
Let the political analysis steep for a while. When the time comes, it’ll taste better.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and author of Our Best Foot Forward: An Investment Plan for North Carolina’s Economic Recovery.