Moving is a hassle. We like the new house, but my kids and I are still living partially out of boxes, figuring out where the light switches are, investigating the source of strange new noises, and otherwise stumbling around.

I have discovered at least one unanticipated benefit of the move, however. Because of the time lag built into forwarded mail, I’m only now receiving the print editions of magazines originally sent weeks ago to my previous address. Reading their news coverage has been revelatory.

You see, when these articles were originally written and published, in mid-October, President Obama and his congressional allies had just emerged triumphant from their budget standoff with the Republicans. Several articles discuss ways for the Democrats to turn their newfound momentum into legislative gains on immigration, taxes, and other issues. Other articles probe the fate of the GOP after the failure of its desperate attempt to halt the implementation of Obamacare — the “settled law of the land,” as you might recall.

What a difference a month makes.

It’s now clear that during the federal-budget showdown, both sides got it wrong. Many Republicans assumed that if they couldn’t defund or delay Obamacare by its October 1 date of implementation, the game would be over. Millions of Americans would begin enrolling in exchange plans heavily subsidized by other taxpayers, creating a new and popular entitlement that would be impossible to rescind in the future. That’s pretty much what many Democrats assumed, as well. They also assumed that often-stated fears of an impending implementation disaster were just Republican talking points or media exaggerations. They assumed the Obama administration was ready for the challenge, both technologically and organizationally.

All these assumptions were wrong. If anything, Obamacare’s critics had underestimated the extent of the resulting disaster. The president and his team proved to be confused and feckless. Obama’s personal credibility were shredded, his approval ratings dropped into George W. Bush territory, and his attempts to rectify the situation — including yesterday’s attempt to rewrite the Affordable Care Act once again by kingly decree — were increasingly derided on news networks that didn’t rhyme with “mocks.”

I won’t re-litigate the case against Obamacare today. There is such a thing as cruel and unusual punishment. Instead, I’ll just point out the folly of making political predictions by extrapolating straight lines from fleeting moments in time.

A month ago, North Carolina Democrats were upbeat. U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan, while not a shoo-in for reelection, seemed comfortably ahead of her potential GOP opponents. Months of relentless attacks, protests, and propaganda had helped bring down the approval ratings of Gov. Pat McCrory and the Republican-led legislature, raising Democratic hopes that instead of just taking a few House and Senate seats back in 2014, they might pull off another Democratic wave election like 2006 or 2008. At the national level, Democrats were similarly optimistic about their chances of keeping the U.S. Senate even taking the U.S. House.

By mid-November, however, the momentum was moving in precisely the opposite direction. Senate Democrats, Hagan included, are panicked. After trailing for months on the generic-ballot polling for congressional races, Republicans are now tied or slightly ahead. Here in North Carolina, Democrats are beginning to understand that the unpopularity of the president and his signature health-care legislation would trump virtually every other issue if the midterms were held today — and that would, in turn, end their dream of dominating legislative and county-commission races.

My point cuts both ways, of course. Drawing a straight-line prediction from mid-November 2013 to Election Day 2014 would be no wiser than drawing a straight-line prediction from mid-October 2013 to Election Day 2014. While Obamacare will likely be a drag on Democratic candidates next year, we are simply not in a position to know all the potential variables for the midterms. Other national or international events may intrude. Or the president may decide to sign a real, bipartisan rewrite of the most egregious provisions of the ACA (seems unlikely at this moment, but desperation sometimes breeds humility).

I think I’ll save my November 2013 newsmagazines and look at them again a year from now, just for fun.

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Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.