RALEIGH — In a dramatic beginning of the end (or is it the end of the beginning?) — of the Democratic presidential race, both John Edwards and John Kerry seem to be surging in what may turn out to be a true four-way race in Iowa. Wesley Clark has gained significant ground on Howard Dean in New Hampshire. Predictions of a relatively easy Dean two-fer — commonplace among pundits and political pros just a couple of weeks ago — now seem at least premature if not embarrassingly wrongheaded.
What happened? I don’t think anyone knows for sure. But there are several potential explanations I’ve heard about in recent days that are worth considering:
* Howard Dean, far from being the prototypical Internet-age candidate, is a horrible Internet-age candidate. Gaffe-prone, self-confident to the point of haughtiness, and a governor with a long public record in conflict with his current political persona, Dean has proven to be vulnerable to the new political phenomenon of death by a thousand blogs. Every mistake, misstatement, or contradiction gets reported instantaneously, blogged massively, and Fisked mercilessly. A more disciplined candidate wouldn’t be such an easy target. Sure, Dean may have made it, however briefly, to the head of the pack by the skillful use of the Web. But now, it seems that the wolves aren’t following any more. They’re circling.
* The Iraq war issue isn’t turning out the way Deaniacs expected. The capture of Saddam Hussein has deflated the balloon a bit, as has the passage of time. Most Democrats either supported the decision to go to war, were ambivalent enough about it not to consider the most important issue in the race, were once opposed but now are having second thoughts, or remain opposed but no longer think they can convince their fellow Americans it was a bad idea and would like to change the subject.
* The news media helped create the Howard Dean boomlet by their breathless reporting during November and December. Having gotten bored with this story, and perceiving the need to bring Dean down a peg or two to keep the race interesting and the readers and viewers paying attention, reporters and pundits spent the past three weeks dwelling on Dean’s shortcomings while talking up previously neglected options such as Kerry and Edwards and lavishing significant attention on Clark, virtually alone on the hustings in New Hampshire.
* John Kerry and John Edwards, after months of aimless wandering, finally found their constituencies in Iowa. Kerry was able to link up with veteran’s groups, New Democrat males, conflicted war supporters, and elements of the state’s political establishment close to Gov. Tom Vilstack. Edwards appears to be popular with voters seeking a more upbeat, positive message, rural voters looking for one of their own, female New Democrats, and voters thinking strategically about how best to challenge Bush outside of Democratic strongholds in the Northeast and Pacific coast. Both also benefitted from the fact that some anti-Dean voters, originally considering Clark as an option, were prompted by his increasingly odd behavior and revelations of his own, Dean-like flip-flops to gravitate towards the Johns.
* One of the best theories came from a reporter of my acquaintence who observed that there was never a Dean boomlet at all, so its disappearance now doesn’t require a lengthy explanation. Until recently, voters even in early-contest states weren’t paying much attention to the race, this theory goes. Asked in public opinion polls for a candidate preference, they merely supplied the name they’d heard most about in the media reports of late 2003 — Howard Dean. Now that these voters are getting ready to make a choice, they are splitting among five candidates (sorry Joe Lieberman) with roughly equivalent talents, abilities, and selling points.
* And then there are endorsements. Once Al Gore, Bill Bradley, Jimmy Carter (sort of), and other establishment Democrats began to line up for Dean, his luster as an unabashed, fiery, short-sleeved outsider began to dim. Kerry continued to add to his long list of senators, congressmen, and other prominent endorsers. And Edwards was clearly aided by the critical endorsement of the Des Moines Register and Ashton Kutcher, not necessarily in that order, and predictions of his success last November by certain former political aides and free-market think-tankers (scroll down).
Take your pick among these options, but hurry — by Monday, it may be necessary to come up with another set of explanations to explain another set of events.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.