RALEIGH – I’ve been wondering why Democratic acquaintances of mine who work in North Carolina politics seem more pessimistic about their legislative prospects in 2010 than Republicans seem optimistic about theirs. In the end, obviously, it must be a zero sum.

Everyone recognizes that, for a variety of reasons, the state GOP has a better chance of picking up legislative seats than at any time since the revolutionary year of 1994. But so far, North Carolina Republicans have been reticent, at least in my presence, to make confident predictions about taking over the General Assembly.

Perhaps they feel like Charlie Brown, looking down the field at the football Lucy is holding and remembering past episodes. Perhaps they don’t want to jinx it. And perhaps their private polls just haven’t been showing the same things that worried Democrats appear to have been seeing.

Two new public polls speak to the issue. Both offer promising signs to the Republicans, though an election still a year away is an election far from determined.

First, look at the latest Civitas Institute Flash Poll. Taken earlier this week, it showed a 29 percent approval rating for Gov. Beverly Perdue, a 44 percent approval rating for President Barack Obama, and strong voter disapproval of the various forms of ObamaCare now making their way through Congress.

It also showed a huge Republican lead in the generic ballot for U.S. House, 52 percent to 39 percent. Remember that the state’s delegation currently splits 8 to 5 Democratic. A large lead in the generic ballot doesn’t necessarily predict a significant shift in Congress, given that most of the seats are safe for the incumbent Rs or Ds. But it does tell you something about overall voter sentiment.

On the issues, the Civitas poll found overwhelming opposition to the fiscal policies adopted by Perdue and the Democratic legislature this year. Only 28 percent of respondents agreed with the Democratic position that the legislature had cut the state budget as much as it could and needed to raise taxes to erase the fiscal deficit. Sixty percent agreed with the Republican position that the state budget should have been cut more and taxes raised less or not at all.

Meanwhile, the latest Public Policy Polling survey showed a similar Republican tilt in state politics. The GOP led the generic ballot for Congress by a 48 percent to 38 percent margin. More importantly, it led the generic ballot for North Carolina legislature 46 percent to 39 percent. In nearly 20 years of reading North Carolina election polls, I’ve never seen the Republicans lead on a generic ballot test for legislature, though perhaps PPP has found something similar in the past and I just didn’t see the result.

There are plenty of reasons not to assume that current polling necessarily predicts next year’s balloting. North Carolina Democrats traditionally have advantages in fundraising and candidate recruitment. A year from now, the state’s economic situation or the nation’s political trends may look very different than they do right now. And there will be an intervening legislative session next summer during which Democratic leaders are likely to stage votes or pass bills designed to create a better image for the party’s candidates in the fall.

But the opportunity for significant change in 2010 clearly exists. Now I know why some state Democrats are sweating. It’s obviously not the weather.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation