RALEIGH – I happened across two different pieces of political prognostication Monday afternoon, one in USA Today and the other in the venerable Southern Political Report newsletter. Their headlines may have seemed inconsistent, but a more careful reading suggests a commonality.

“Democrats slipping in state races,” announced the nation’s largest-circulation newspaper on Monday. Reporter Susan Page looked at cases in Michigan and Wisconsin where Democratic incumbents once thought to be a lock for re-election as governor are now facing serious challenges from Republicans. More generally, she wrote, of the 10 largest states with gubernatorial races this year, Democratic prospects “have gotten tougher in four – California, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania – and better in one, New York.”

The June 5 edition of Southern Political Report has a cheerier headline for the donkey set: “Democrats poised to make gains in Dixie.” Hastings Wyman and Matt Towery examine races for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and governor across the 11 former Confederate states plus Kentucky and Oklahoma. Out of three Senate races this year, they see two potential Democratic gains. Republican incumbent George Allen appears to be at risk in Virginia, particularly if author and former Reagan Navy Secretary James Webb gets the Democratic nod, while the Republican Senate seat in Tennessee could well feature a victory by by Democrat U.S. Rep. Harold Ford against one of three GOP candidates (former congressmen Van Hilleary and Ed Bryant plus former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker).

In the House, SPR counts five GOP seats where Democrats have a good chance of winning (again, the betting seems to be that North Carolina’s 11th District, Rep. Charles Taylor vs. Heath Shuler, will be competitive but not Robin Hayes’ 8th District). The newsletter identifies five Democratic seats in the South drawing serious Republican challenges, too, but opines that 2006 won’t be their year and to “look for Democratic gains in the South’s U.S. House delegation in the three- to five-seat range.”

Inconsistent takes? Not really. The USA Today piece is about gubernatorial races, and even begins with the observation that “the political landscape has gotten friendlier for congressional Democrats over the past six months.” And obviously SPR has a regional, not a national focus. Admittedly, SPR is a bit more sanguine about Democratic races for governor than the pundits quoted by the newspaper are. For example, while the newspaper calls the Arkansas governor’s race a toss-up, the newsletter calls it a “likely Democratic takeover” of a previously Republican post.

It seems to me that the common theme here is incumbency. In places where the economy is underperforming the nation – be they states such as Michigan or regions such as Southern congressional districts – voters seem inclined to throw out the incumbent party and opt for new leadership. Republicans are catching most of this flak nationally, given their unified control of Congress and the presidency. They also have more governorships than Democrats, and thus more exposure to the anti-incumbency trend.

Now comes the obligatory warning label: this is a snapshot, in June, of a situation that won’t resolve itself until November. Politics is fluid. Lots of things could happen before campaigns really start cranking in the fall. Certainly pundits, reporters, and political newsletter marketers hope so: who is going to keep reading if the 2006 outcomes are already a foregone conclusion?

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.