RALEIGH – The latest nationwide Gallup poll (see http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr020730.asp) indicates that stock market declines and the continuing political fallout from accounting scandals may be affecting voter sentiment as we approach the fall election season. Gallup properly notes that the so-called “generic ballot,” question on Congress has been volatile in recent months. Still, the fact that Democrats have taken a sizable lead does signify something real about the perception of swing voters that the economy is not recovering strongly. Traditionally, economic problems translate into political problems for the president’s party.
Furthermore, the popularity of George W. Bush, which remains high despite some understandable slippage the past few weeks, may not translate into the kind of help that some marginal GOP candidates will need. His halo comes from foreign policy success; I, for one, don’t seem him as having been active enough in setting the economic agenda. After miscues such as a bloated farm bill and a lurch towards protectionism with high steel tariffs, Bush signaled precipitous support for a punitive business-reform bill on Capitol Hill that has clearly spooked the financial markets.
He should be advocating major new initiatives to get the economic recovery into a higher gear, and to speak to the needs of the new investor class whose political allegiances aren’t set in stone. The president should be talking about the need to remove barriers to investment, making the case for tax reform and reining in the trial attorneys.
I don’t think the Democratic surge on the generic congressional ballot signifies a leftward tilt in the electorate. It represents a very real concern on the part of some independents and moderates that Bush isn’t moving aggressively enough on the economy. I agree. Yes, we might be in a war in Iraq by the fall, though now it looks more like winter or spring, but the president has the time and the political capital to focus on the economy right now.