With public skepticism toward polling at an all-time high, the Carolina Journal Poll, conducted by the respected polling firm Cygnal, has shown remarkable precision in North Carolina, one of the nation’s most unpredictable battlegrounds. As publisher of Carolina Journal, I am proud to share that our October poll demonstrated extraordinary accuracy, especially in key statewide races, with several outcomes falling within a margin of error of just 1.25% and some within less than 1%.
For an election cycle marked by shifting political winds and an electorate deeply divided on core issues, the Carolina Journal Poll emerged as a beacon of reliability. Results from our October poll on the races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, agriculture commissioner, and state superintendent all fell within a razor-thin margin of less than 1% of the electoral outcomes while also correctly calling the winners. The closest of these was for the attorney general race, where our poll indicated that Democrat Jeff Jackson had a lead over Republican Dan Bishop, and Jackson’s lead in our poll was 0.04% off from his electoral victory margin.
Our projections for governor, insurance commissioner, and the state Supreme Court seat were also correct on the winners and accurate within an impressive 1.25% margin.
For the presidential race, the CJ Poll forecast a razor-thin margin in North Carolina, with Republican Donald Trump leading Democrat Kamala Harris by just 0.6% (47.2% to 46.6%). Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in North Carolina with a 3.39% margin — within 2.8% of our poll’s margin, validating the poll’s precision in a highly contested and volatile battleground state.
Polls are not predictive in nature — they are snapshots in time. However, we fielded this poll mere days before in-person early voting began to give the public the most accurate picture possible of the general election in North Carolina. These results are a testament to Cygnal’s professionalism and our rigorous commitment to ensuring that North Carolinians receive trustworthy, unbiased data on the state’s most consequential elections.
Polling is both an art and a science, shaped by voter turnout, last-minute decisions, unexpected events, and evolving contact technology. Yet, Cygnal’s multi-mode methodology, coupled with great timing, days before early voting began, offered one of the most precise and reliable snapshots of voter intent, along with meticulous attention to fair wording of questions. The precision of our polling reflects our work commitment at the John Locke Foundation and Carolina Journal: providing the highest-quality insights to guide public policy and deepen understanding of the political landscape.
Polling as a policy tool
We deal in facts, not spin.
The Carolina Journal Poll serves a crucial role beyond merely predicting election outcomes; it is an essential instrument in shaping and understanding the public policy landscape in North Carolina. By consistently gauging voter sentiment on the performance of elected officials and key legislative issues like energy policy, taxation, and education, our poll provides invaluable insights to policymakers, advocates, and the public. Unlike traditional electoral polls that wind down after votes are cast, the Carolina Journal Poll remains active year-round. This commitment to continuous, high-quality polling ensures that North Carolina’s leaders have access to data-driven perspectives that can guide legislative decisions and policy priorities, keeping our state attuned to the ever-evolving concerns of its citizens.
Polling can play a vital role in keeping elected officials accountable, not just by evaluating their job performance but also by highlighting the issues that matter most to citizens. The Carolina Journal Poll provides lawmakers with a clear understanding of voter priorities — whether it’s education, energy policy, or taxes — helping ensure that legislative agendas remain aligned with public sentiment. This continuous flow of information empowers citizens and fosters a government that listens and responds to the evolving needs and values of the people it serves.
The accuracy of these tight races underscores that when done correctly, polling remains an invaluable tool for policy organizations and the public. In a politically charged environment, Carolina Journal and Cygnal have shown that polling can still offer a reliable window into the electorate’s mind, and our proven track record should serve as a reassurance to those who have grown cynical about its value.
Our commitment
The John Locke Foundation, home to the Carolina Journal, is dedicated to free-market principles and North Carolina policy, and we often face criticism from the political left and some media outlets who claim our polling is biased. Yet, these accusations ignore the reality that our effectiveness as a public-policy think tank hinges on the accuracy of our data and public policy research. We have no incentive to skew results or rely on an unreliable pollster; doing so would render our insights meaningless and hinder our mission.
As Otto von Bismarck once said, “Politics is the art of the possible,” and having a precise understanding of public opinion is essential for shaping feasible, impactful policies. Our commitment to rigorous, unbiased polling ensures that we understand the electorate’s actual sentiments, guiding us in advancing policies that resonate with North Carolinians.
We are proud to set a new benchmark for excellence in North Carolina. The Carolina Journal Poll is more than a set of numbers; it’s a resource that empowers North Carolinians to be well-informed and well-prepared for the decisions that shape our future.
We thank you for paying attention to our polling capability and look forward to providing you with the best information possible in 2025 and beyond.