Crime branding, party ID, still a problem for Dems in court races

There is a reason that North Carolina, at the time completely controlled by elected Democrats, switched to non-partisan judicial elections for superior courts in 1998, district and appellate courts in 2002, and Supreme Court races in 2004.

Democrats did not make these change because they wanted to “get partisan politics” out of the courts. Political parties continued to be the driving force behind judicial elections, despite the party labels being removed from the ballot.

They sure as heck did not do it to empower voters. With less information about the judicial candidates, after the court races went from partisan to non-partisan labeling (1998-2016), some 25-30% fewer voters cast ballots in judicial races, resulting in the largest Democratic Party-inspired disenfranchising of voters since Jim Crow.

Democrats took the party identification off the ballot in judicial races because Democrats had started losing them. Period. End of story. They started losing them for two reasons that explain why they are losing them now. Fewer and fewer voters have an allegiance to the Democratic Party, and that party continues to be seen as weak on crime and law and order.

The Republican legislature began making judicial elections partisan once more, starting in 2016. With this “unrigging” of the rules, Republicans once again started dominating statewide judicial races.

In 2020, Republicans won three close elections on the North Carolina Supreme Court, paving the way for them to win a majority in 2022.

In 2020 there was little variance in the judicial races from the vote share of the two major political parties at the top of the ticket. Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden in NC by 1.3%. And in the Supreme Court races, Republican Tamara Barringer defeated Democrat Justice Mark Davis by 2.4%, GOP appellate court Judge Phil Berger Jr. defeated fellow appellate court Judge Lucy Inman by 1.3%, and Republican Justice Paul Newby defeated Chief Justice Cheri Beasley by a mere 401 votes to become the chief justice.

In 2022, Republicans Trey Allen and Richard Dietz defeated Democrats Inman and Justice Sam Ervin IV, giving Republicans the majority in a year that generally favored Republicans.

North Carolina Democrats have not won a statewide judicial election since 2018. They are 3-20 in the last 23 partisan judicial elections and only 1-21 in races with a single Republican and a single Democrat in the race, as will be the case with all statewide judicial elections in 2024.

This fall, Democrat Allison Riggs hopes to defend her state Supreme Court seat, a position she was appointed to in September of 2023 by Gov. Roy Cooper after Democrat Justice Mike Morgan stepped down early to run for the Democratic nomination for governor. Morgan lost the primary to Attorney General Josh Stein.

But Riggs won a Democratic primary challenge over Guilford County Superior Court Judge Lora Cubbage earlier this year and will now face Republican Court of Appeals Judge Jefferson Griffin for the eight-year Supreme Court term.

Republicans currently hold a 5-2 advantage on the court and could stretch that to a 6-1 majority if Griffin wins. This would put a Democratic court majority out of reach until well into the next decade. Democrats can also close a large gap on the state Court of Appeals by winning the three races up in 2024. Republicans currently hold an 11-4 majority on the State Court of Appeals.

In the first seat, Democrat Carolyn Thompson, a Cooper appointee, will face Republican former state Rep. Tom Murry.

On the Court of Appeals, Republican incumbent Judge Valerie J. Zachary faces a challenge from Democrat Edward Eldred, an attorney from Orange County.

Buncombe County Commissioner Martin Moore, a Democrat, faces Republican District Court Judge Christopher Freeman from Rockingham in the lone open seat on the Court of Appeals.

Just 50 years ago, North Carolina was largely a one-party state, with the most important elections decided in Democratic primaries. Since that time, unaffiliated voters and Republicans have moved into parity when it comes to registered voters. The John Locke Foundation’s Andy Jackson, who tracks election data as director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity, predicts that for the first time in North Carolina history, more North Carolina voters will be registered as Republicans than Democrats in 2026.

This proves critical, if not decisive, in judicial elections. Voters know little about our judicial candidates, who can’t raise enough money to effectively communicate with millions of voters in the nation’s ninth largest state. The fact is, if more voters are voting for Republicans in any given election, they are more likely to vote for Republican judges. No matter how good a candidate the Democrats offer, no matter how smart and experienced they are, this is a simple electoral math problem difficult to overcome.

Further it is the Democrat Party that embraced and excused violent actions by rioters in the wake of the death of criminal suspect George Floyd. It is Democrat prosecutors pushing for “no cash bail” schemes for violent criminals. It is North Carolina Democrats that effectively ended the death penalty for evil killers in North Carolina. It is the current Democratic administration seen as weak on border security leading to a rise in crime.

People can have a rigorous debate about crime and justice policies and the differences between the two political parties, but the results show the current Democratic brand on crime is hurting that party’s efforts to win judicial races.

It is not that candidates don’t matter. They do. Differences in race, experience, gender, and name identification all can make small differences on the margins. In really good “blue-wave” years, Democrats can still win statewide judicial races.

However as Democrats move to the minority party when it comes to voter registration, and some measurable amount of swing voters view Democrats as weak on crime, Democrats will struggle to regain control of North Carolina’s highest courts.