Before the recent redistricting, North Carolina only had one competitive congressional race — the First District, covering the northeastern part of the state. But the new districts, drawn explicitly to give Republicans an additional seat in the US House, pushed NC-1 from a lean Democratic seat to a lean Republican seat, according to the Cook Political Report.
Because legislative mapmakers achieved this by drawing more Republican voters into NC-1 from NC-3, that also had the effect of making NC-3 more of a “lean Republican” seat too, rather than the very safe seat that it had been. So there aren’t any true toss-up seats anymore.
As shown in the chart above, created by Andy Jackson of the John Locke Foundation’s Civitas Center for Public Integrity, this resulted in NC-11, covering Asheville and the surrounding rural mountain counties, becoming the closest congressional race in the state, at least in terms of voting behavior. NC-1 is still listed in Cook Political Report as a lean Republican, while NC-11 is a likely Republican, but this is more due to NC-1’s incumbent, Democrat Don Davis, who has strong name ID in the area and more moderate positioning.
“While Republicans will usually win in [these three NC] ‘lean’ districts, the president’s party tends to lose support in midterm elections,” Jackson said. “If that trend continues in 2026 and Democrats nominate strong candidates, they have an outside chance of winning one or more of those races. With the change in the First District, the 11th District is now rated as North Carolina’s most competitive at R+4.”
Jackson even said that when parties gerrymander to maximize the number of seats their party will win, they can spread their voters too thin, and a wave-year for their opponents can actually lead to multiple losses. This is called a “dummymander.” Jackson said in another piece that the changes to NC-1 and NC-3 are not quite a dummymander, since Republicans still maintain a fairly comfortable advantage in both.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), who decides on the national strategy for their party’s US House races, has taken notice of all of this. The DCCC currently has both NC-11 in the mountains and NC-3 at the coast among the 35 seats (out of 218 Republican-held districts) on their 2026 “Districts in Play” list. And NC-1 is one of their 24 “Frontline” seats to defend out of the 213 Democratic-held districts.
Put another way, out of 435 congressional districts, the DCCC considers only 59 “in play,” and North Carolina’s three lean Republican seats are among them.
And one can see the DCCC already putting resources towards NC-11 especially. In recent emails, half targeted both US Rep. Greg Murphy, R-NC3; and US Rep. Chuck Edwards, R-NC11. The other half focused on Edwards alone, maybe signalling which seat they believe they’d have a better shot at. [They are likely keeping their powder dry on NC-1 because it’s held by a Democrat and they don’t know who the Republican general election opponent will be yet.]
In 2024, the Democratic candidate in NC-11, Caleb Rudow, lost by a wide margin, 56.8% to 43.2%. But Rudow did not raise nearly enough money, at $645,960, to mount a competitive campaign against an incumbent. Party committees like the DCCC gave Rudow $0, according to the FEC.
While most analysts still consider it a fairly safe Republican district, there are a few things that could make it much closer than in 2024. For one, 2024 was a strong Republican year, while in 2026, President Donald Trump’s polling numbers are slipping in the state. Secondly, unlike last time, there will be a Libertarian candidate, Travis Groo, on the ballot, which often pulls a point or two (sometimes more) from Republican candidates. Lastly, as Cook Political Report said in its article announcing their move of NC-11 from “solid” to “likely” Republican, “Western North Carolina is one of the few regions of the country that trended left between 2020 and 2024, bucking the national rightward trend.”
All of these factors together could create the perfect storm. Maybe. Or, even if it’s the closest race in North Carolina, the Democrats might not end up dumping their limited attention and resources into defeating Edwards, since they only need to net three seats over the Republicans to take over the House, and there are closer races elsewhere.
More likely, they will watch to see how the race develops. Much of it will hinge on who wins the primary. Of those in the race, Jamie Ager has raised the most money and attention, but there are a few others who appear like serious contenders as well. Ager released an internal poll to Newsweek, conducted by Impact Research, showing Ager with 45% and Edwards with 44%. Internal polls shouldn’t be considered too reliable, but they are used to create earned media (like the story in Newsweek) and to raise money.
If other outside polling looks close, and the Democratic primary winner looks viable, the DCCC may bump NC-11 up from “Districts in Play” to “Primary Target.” Then the money will really flow, both from DCCC and from all the progressive activist groups that take their cues from them on where to send money. If and when that happens, the race may become really competitive.