Observing the debate on the right about President Trump’s new sweeping tariffs, I’ve noticed a common talking point: “Yes, these tariffs will make prices go up. But this will be short-term pain for long-term gain, as we will bring back manufacturing to the United States.”
But my somewhat irreverent question in response is: Is it really in our best interest to bring back all the manufacturing jobs that have left our shores over recent decades?
It’s a basic fact of economics that as a nation gets wealthier, their economies tend to move from manufacturing to more service-sector jobs. During this transition, it can certainly be painful for individuals, and often whole towns, who had taken pride in doing honest, skilled work with their hands. These jobs may be more plentiful and available than people realize though.
As a recent column in Carolina Journal by NC Chamber president Gary Salamido pointed out, manufacturing is still a major part of the state economy, at about 13% of jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, manufacturing peaked in the United States in 1953, when it accounted for 32% of jobs. Now it is down to 8% nationally, so our state’s numbers are actually higher than average. This positive environment for manufacturing undoubtedly contributed to North Carolina being named the No. 1 state for manufacturing in 2024.
This is certainly a positive contribution to our economy. But there doesn’t seem to be a good argument for implementing punishing tariffs — which cause tension with foreign nations and drive up prices and taxes for citizens — in hopes of potentially increasing this percentage.
It might make sense to flood the job market with new manufacturing jobs if we were dealing with tons of unemployed workers with nowhere to go. But we have the opposite problem, as our nation is experiencing a severe labor shortage. Even if the tariffs were successful in bringing factories full of manufacturing jobs back to our shores, who would work them? There simply aren’t enough workers to go around as it is.
The US Chamber of Commerce actually rates North Carolina as having a “more severe” labor shortage than average, with 55 available workers for every 100 job openings.
This lack of workers can be seen across pretty much all sectors, public and private:
About 40% of corrections officer positions in North Carolina are currently unfilled, creating dangerous conditions for staff and inmates.
NC DPI reported an 8.2% vacancy rate for teacher positions last school year, although many of these positions are filled temporarily by someone without full credentials.
US Department of Health and Human Services estimates the United States has a shortage of 120,000 physicians. North Carolina ranks in the bottom half of states, with 92 of 100 counties, typically in rural areas, being “health professional shortage areas.”
The construction industry, the restaurant industry, agriculture, and many others also report major difficulty finding the workers they need to stay operational. If they cannot find these workers, it can mean partial shutdowns or going completely out of business.
In addition to all the sectors mentioned above, and most relevantly, the manufacturing industry has a major shortage of workers. A story last year in the News & Observer quotes Jay Timmons, head of the National Association of Manufacturers, saying that the worker shortage is hitting his industry hard.
“It hits every single company that I’ve talked to everywhere,” Timmons said, during the group’s National Manufacturing Day rally, which happened to be held in Cary that year. He said there were 800,000 unfilled manufacturing jobs across the country, “almost twice the entire population of Raleigh,” adding, “If we don’t find the talent that we need to keep shop floors running and research and development moving, we’re going to lose out on productivity, on innovation, on growth.”
This 800,000-worker shortage in manufacturing is expected to grow to 2.1 million by 2030. And in North Carolina, we are seeing the same difficulty. Professor Mike Walden, an NC State University economist, in his annual report on manufacturing in the state, said for 2025, the shortage of workers was a major drag on the sector. Walden said employment in the sector dropped by 3% and wages have increased sharply because there are thousands of unfilled positions across the state. One reason he cited is that “Numerous studies show that young people, especially, are not interested in jobs in manufacturing because they equate the jobs to being physically difficult and requiring long hours.”
Regardless, these are good jobs, and it would be great if people would take them. Maybe work needs to be done to improve people’s image of manufacturing. But if we can’t find anyone to fill the jobs that exist, why would we import entire factories-worth of additional manufacturing jobs? And why would we try to achieve this dubious goal by way of a punishing tax on American consumers (which is ultimately what a tariff is)? Both the ends and the means are tough to defend.