This week North Carolina’s 2026 election filing period officially opened with known, and not so known, candidates throwing their hat in the ring, signing on the dotted line. As much attention as public figures get, it truly is a thankless job. I’m always amazed at how much time it requires to be a public servant, the cost to run, and the toll on the candidates and their families for comparatively little pay. Bless those who put themselves out there for intense scrutiny and work.
The Civitas Partisan Index helps to put some hard data context to the campaign drama. Recently released by the John Locke Foundation, publishing organization of Carolina Journal, the CPI measures how strongly each North Carolina legislative district leans Democratic or Republican compared to the state average. Dr. Andy Jackson, director of the Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation, toils over the minutia of this index each cycle, providing valuable insight for North Carolina elections. It paints a political picture of our state in numbers.
Districts receive a score like “D+7” or “R+5,” showing how many percentage points more Democratic or Republican the district is than the statewide two‑party vote in recent statewide races. The CPI highlights which districts are “safe,” “likely,” “lean,” or “toss‑up.” Think of it as a baseline map of partisan tendencies across the state.
While the 2024 CPI would have correctly predicted the outcome of 98.8% of the races assigned a partisan lean, the numbers are not deterministic. The CPI does not indicate an inevitable winning party or candidate. It reflects past voting patterns, not candidates, campaign fundraising, or turnout.
But by gelling information into a data point, the CPI instead provides a variable for those calculating how best to make their voices heard in the state’s political landscape.
Campaigns use it to know where to allocate resources to reach the voters. For journalists and observers, it provides a clear baseline to assess which districts are truly competitive and where to focus attention. Perhaps most importantly, for voters it offers transparency. Instead of relying on anecdotes or impressions, citizens can see in plain numbers how their district compares to state trends.
Ultimately, the numbers are a tool; the real predictor of November 2026 happened this week. The seemingly simple act of going to downtown Raleigh’s Jim Graham building at the State Fairgrounds is transformative. It turns that hard data on districts into real contests of personality and policy perspectives. Each candidate, famous or not, in their own way adds a new layer of uncertainty and choice for voters, despite what the CPI might predict. New or surprise names on the ballot can shift the races overnight. The candidate filing process is a true illustration of self-government.
Candidates are putting their names and reputations out there in races of all sizes. The least we can do is learn who they are and what they believe. Let’s make that a New Year’s Resolution. In 2026, pledge to attend a town hall, a city council meeting, or a debate. Get to know the candidates early in this election cycle, even in districts that the data might indicate is “safe” for one party or another.
The legacy of our liberty requires stewardship on our part. Evaluations like the CPI are never intended to determine the outcome, only to be a tool for engagement. It is up to us to secure freedom and accountability in a meaningful democracy. The CPI might tell a story, but it is the candidates who file and the citizens who vote who write the ending.