North Carolina Republicans are walking into a predictable trap.
With a crowded Republican primary forming to replace US Sen. Thom Tillis, the incentives of the current system are already clear: candidates will be forced to run further right than necessary to survive a plurality contest, even if doing so damages their chances in the general election.
That outcome is not accidental. It is baked into North Carolina’s rules.
One of the Lowest Thresholds in the Nation
North Carolina allows primary candidates to win with just 30% of the vote — one of the lowest plurality thresholds in the country. In a field with multiple credible candidates, that means a nominee can advance with well under majority support.
The current GOP field already includes Michael Whatley, former chair of the Republican National Committee; Don Brown, attorney and author; Margot Dupre, real estate broker; Thomas “TJ” Johnson, US Air Force veteran and CEO; Michele Morrow, conservative activist and former statewide nominee; and Elizabeth Temple, educator and former state House candidate. With a field this crowded, vote-splitting is inevitable.
Carolina Journal has rightly questioned whether that bar is too low, previously suggesting raising the threshold to 40%. That instinct is sound — but in a race like this, it still misses the larger problem.
In a crowded field with popular candidates, 40% is a very high bar, making a runoff not just possible but likely.
Runoffs Are Expensive — and Politically Damaging
Whether triggered by a 30% or 40% threshold, a runoff comes at a steep price.
Statewide runoffs cost millions of dollars in taxpayer funds, extend campaigns for months, and dramatically reduce turnout. The final decision is often made by a fraction of a fraction of voters — typically the most ideological — while mainstream Republicans and independents sit it out.
Even worse, the threat of a runoff intensifies ideological escalation. Candidates don’t moderate; they double down. They make sharper promises, harden rhetoric, and lock themselves into positions that may help them survive a primary — but severely weaken them in November.
Independents Decide Elections in North Carolina
Independents are now the largest voting bloc in North Carolina. Republicans do not win statewide races by dominating the ideological fringe. They win by persuading independents that the GOP nominee is competent, credible, and focused on governing.
Plurality primaries in crowded fields do the opposite. They reward narrow appeals and punish coalition-building. Even otherwise traditional conservatives are forced to tack right — not because it helps defeat Democrats, but because it helps survive the primary.
The result is a nominee damaged before the general election even begins.
Instant Runoffs Solve the Problem — Without Costly Elections
There is a better solution.
Instant Runoff Voting (also known as ranked-choice voting) allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference. If no one earns a majority, the lowest-performing candidate is eliminated and second choices are counted. The process continues until a candidate earns true majority support — all on one ballot, on one election day, with no additional runoff election.
Instant runoffs eliminate the spoiler effect, reduce ideological arms races, and reward candidates who can appeal to a broad cross-section of Republican voters.
Republicans already know this works. In 2021, the Virginia GOP used an instant-runoff system to select its nominee for governor. The result was Glenn Youngkin — a conservative who unified the party and went on to win statewide in a challenging political environment.
That outcome was not accidental. Better rules produced a better nominee.
This Is About the Primary — And parties Control the Fix
To be clear: this argument is about primaries, not general elections.
Implementing instant runoffs would likely require legislative support. But in North Carolina, Republicans control the General Assembly.
If the GOP wants the strongest possible nominee — one capable of winning over independents, avoiding million-dollar runoff elections, and defeating Roy Cooper — it already has the power to act.
Instant runoffs in the primary would give parties better candidates. Period.
