Conservatives across the country are celebrating the Republican Party’s control of the House, Senate, and presidency. While much has been written about Kamala Harris’s failed campaign and the seemingly dire state of the American left, there has been far less focus on what recent political shifts mean for the future of the conservative movement in the coming decade. Four key factors suggest that, despite challenges, conservatives are poised for success in the years ahead.
1. Electoral College shifting to red states
If a future Republican presidential candidate in 2032 carries the same states as Trump in 2024, demographic projections indicate that the candidate would win 324 electoral votes — compared to Trump’s 312 in 2024 — or roughly 60% of the Electoral College. As migration patterns continue to shift, blue states are expected to lose electoral votes by 2030 (e.g., California -4, New York -2, and Illinois -2), while red states are expected to gain them (e.g., Texas +4 and Florida +3).
With a projected increase in population to 11.7 million people, North Carolina is projected to gain one electoral vote and be the seventh most populous state in the country. These growing advantages in the electoral map will likely result in a more secure Republican hold on the presidency, paired with a stronger margin of control in the House, potentially sparing Republicans from the infighting that plagued their razor-thin majority in recent years.
2. “Mainstream media” losing influence
Yet these projected gains will materialize only if conservative candidates can effectively connect with voters. Perhaps the most promising development has been the breakdown of the traditional media monopoly, thanks to the rise of podcasts, YouTube channels, blogs, and independent media outlets like Medium and Substack. For decades, traditional media outlets have had a left-wing bias, and their dominance over information — through television and newspapers — has given the left an outsized influence over American elections.
The internet has dramatically reduced the influence of traditional media. Newspapers were devastated by a decline in revenue due to the loss of classified ads and have yet to recover, while social media platforms have siphoned viewers away from televised news programs. Podcasts and TikTok videos, for better or worse, are now key sources of information for voters. Fifty years ago, many of these same voters would have been reading a left-leaning newspaper over breakfast and watching one of the three left-leaning major network evening news programs at dinner. No longer.
The numbers here are astonishing. Fifty years ago, Walter Cronkite and CBS Evening News had almost 30 million viewers in a much less populous America. Today, the evening news shows of ABC, CBS, and NBC combined have only 19 million viewers. Joe Rogan’s podcast interview with President Trump has been viewed over 50 million times, while only 29 million tuned in to watch Kamala Harris’s speech at the Democratic National Convention.
These stark contrasts underscore the profound shift in how voters are consuming information. The Democratic pundits who lament Harris’s failed appearance on Rogan’s podcast are implicitly acknowledging that the media ecosystem has changed fundamentally: Democratic candidates, who once relied on fawning left-wing media coverage, are no longer reaching enough people through traditional channels. Social media and alternative news outlets have emerged as powerful competitors to traditional media, which is why many on the left are now calling for greater regulation of the internet.
3. Minority voters going independent
One significant result of the changing media ecosphere is Donald Trump’s unexpected inroads with minority voters. Historically, Democrats relied on broad, almost monolithic support from black and Latino communities. However, this dynamic is shifting.
A black female content creator who goes by “Gothix,” and who is part of the Walk Away movement, explains her perspective: “When you are born black in America, it’s sort of insinuated that you will be voting Democrat. Don’t ask questions, just vote Democrat. Which is exactly what I did when Obama was running. I voted for him because he’s black. Knew nothing about his policies, but he’s black and I need to help my people or something.”
For many years, this “Vote Democrat” mentality has been the default for minority voters. However, this automatic support is beginning to erode. In 2024, Trump doubled his support among black men under the age of 45, and his vote margin in majority-black counties across the country rose by nearly six percentage points. The shift among Latino voters was even more striking; exit polls indicate that almost half of Latino voters backed Trump.
In North Carolina, Trump’s share of the black vote jumped from 7% in 2020 to 12% in 2024, and he won 63% of the vote in Robeson County, where the Lumbee tribe is centered. This growing openness among minority voters to consider Republican candidates suggests that long-held assumptions about Democratic loyalty are breaking down. As more minorities feel free to question and even defy traditional party expectations and discuss their choices with family and friends, it is possible that once-automatic minority support for Democrats will continue to diminish, especially if Republicans put forward the right candidates.
4. Abortion becoming a state issue
The final bright spot has been the muting of abortion as a national issue for the Republican Party, due to President Trump’s brilliant handling of the issue. First, he forced a revision to the party platform, which no longer advocates for a constitutional amendment to ban abortion or supports a federal prohibition. Instead, it frames abortion as a matter for states to decide. Trump reinforced this position by repeatedly stating his belief that abortion should be addressed at the state level. When controversy arose over a potential ban on in vitro fertilization (IVF), he swiftly proposed federal funding for IVF to neutralize the issue. By shifting the abortion debate to the state level, Trump significantly diminished its prominence in national elections, making it a less contentious issue for Republicans.
Mark Robinson, the Republican nominee for North Carolina governor, provides a notable contrast to Donald Trump’s approach. Robinson’s firm anti-abortion stance was central to his campaign, which appeared to hinder his appeal. He trailed his Democratic opponent, Josh Stein, by approximately 10 percentage points in the weeks before CNN published their story about his alleged “Black Nazi” comments.
Looking ahead, the conservative movement is positioned for long-term success. The combination of demographic trends, a diversified media landscape, shifting minority allegiances, and a more flexible stance on traditionally divisive issues has given the GOP a unique pathway to broaden its appeal and cement its influence. However, it will take more than just favorable numbers — it will require bold leadership, unity, and a continued commitment to addressing the concerns of a diverse and evolving electorate.