Few fiscal issues are as personal as Social Security. It provides benefits to 70 million Americans, including 2.3 million North Carolinians. It is also in trouble.
The Social Security Trustees estimate that the trust fund for retirement benefits will be exhausted in 2032, at which point the law calls for a 24% across-the-board benefit cut if lawmakers do nothing to prevent it. For a middle-income couple retiring in 2033, that cut would equal $18,400 in lost annual benefits.
None of our political leaders believe this is an acceptable outcome. However, Social Security’s financial problems have been well known for more than 30 years, yet lawmakers have done little to address them. Two key factors are driving Social Security’s worsening finances.
The first is changing demographics: Americans are living longer and birth rates are declining. The number of Americans over 65 has more than doubled over the last 35 years from 32 million to 66 million. Meanwhile, the rest of the adult population has grown by less than a third since 1990 and is expected to stagnate over the coming four decades. An aging economy means more beneficiaries and fewer people paying into the program.
The second is that Social Security’s costs are exceeding its revenues, largely because benefits automatically grow faster than revenues. Initial benefits grow with wages, which grow faster than inflation and become more generous over time. Meanwhile, most of Social Security’s revenue comes from the payroll tax, which is split equally between employers and employees at 6.2% each up to a taxable maximum of $184,500 this year.
Wages above that amount are growing faster than below it, leading to a growing share of wages that go untaxed. The other source of revenue, from taxation of Social Security benefits, keeps getting cut, most recently by the One Big Beautiful Bill. What results is a growing divide between benefits and taxes.
But there is another factor at play, one that has purely to do with politics — and that’s inaction by our elected officials. Despite knowing we need to take action to prevent insolvency — and knowing that the sooner we act to save Social Security, the better — they pledge to “not touch” the program. But promising not to touch Social Security is an implicit endorsement of the automatic cuts coming over the mountain.
So, what can North Carolinians do?
As this year’s Senate candidates campaign across the state, voters can ask them one simple question: What is your plan to save Social Security?
If the candidates respond with the well-worn pledge to protect the program by not touching it, then follow up with: Are you in favor of the benefit cut that comes with that position?
This may seem like a simple ask, but it takes on urgency when you consider that 2032 is not just the projected insolvency date. It coincides with the final year of the term of those elected to the Senate this November — basically putting the future of Social Security on the ballot. That is why voters deserve to know where candidates stand on the issue.
Saving Social Security will not be easy. Few issues have been subject to more myths, falsehoods, and outright lies than Social Security. Even fewer issues bring out the army of special interest groups committed to keeping the status quo through demagoguery, political attacks, and fear mongering.
And yet, we’ve been here before. In 1983, both parties came together to forge a plan that not only saved the program but also extended its solvency by five decades. We can do that again.
There’s no shortage of options, just the political courage to act. Saving Social Security will require both parties to work together if we’re to ensure its solvency for future generations.
Over the next seven months, North Carolina will be the focus of one of the most competitive and watched Senate races in the country. Candidates will have to earn every vote. That makes this the perfect environment for voters to push for answers. They can start by asking how, if elected, they plan to save Social Security.
