NC’s other big 2026 race taking shape

Being a midterm election, North Carolina won’t have a presidential race or the various Council of State races (for governor, attorney general, lieutenant governor, etc) at the top of the ticket. But it does look like we’ll have some fairly competitive and consequential races to follow — which are beginning to take shape now.

Of course, the one that most have been focusing on is North Carolina’s US Senate seat, currently held by Republican Thom Tillis. Democrat former US Congressman Wiley Nickel has thrown his hat into the ring already to challenge him, but a lot more of the buzz surrounds whether former Gov. Roy Cooper will step into the race. Many of the signs suggest he will, and there is already a big groundswell of support for him among Democratic insiders. Having won six consecutive statewide races (four for attorney general and two for governor), he will be a force to contend with. Tillis may even have to face a tough primary, although there aren’t as many developments on that front yet.

But there is also another big race that many stateside politicos will have their eyes on: North Carolina’s First Congressional District. The district, which covers all of 18 counties and part of another in northeastern North Carolina, is the only swing district, not only in the state but the Southeast.

US Rep. Don Davis, a Democrat, has won the last two races for NC-1, but the margins have been closing over time. Davis’ predecessor, Democrat GK Butterfield, consistently won over 70% of the vote over his long career. But in his last race, against political newcomer Republican Sandy Smith, Butterfield only won 54% to 46%.

Davis won against Smith in 2022, by an even narrower 52% to 48%. And in 2024, the race narrowed to less than two points, with Davis defeating retired Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout 49.5% to 47.8%.

Redistricting has also helped chip away at Democratic dominance in the district, and in the 2026 election, East Carolina University and the City of Greenville (both of which are large sources of Democratic votes) will no longer be in the district. The last time Republicans won the seat was in 1883.

What might make the difference this time, if Roberson is the nominee, is that he has qualities that might make him acceptable to both moderate voters and the Republican base. Both Smith and Buckhout leaned hard into the MAGA identity, which was key to winning over the base in their primaries. But it may have cost some votes with the independents and swing voters who ultimately decide the race in a district this close.

Roberson made a point of mentioning Trump, and his intentions to work with him, during his campaign announcement, saying, “I’ll stand with President Trump to get it done.”

He also got the endorsement of Buckhout, who remains popular with local conservative activists. Aligning himself with Trump and having Buckhout in his corner will go a long way to gathering grassroots conservatives in his corner. Putting $2 million of his own money into his campaign won’t hurt to catapult him to the front of the pack either.

But having been the mayor of a town in the district, one where Republicans have not typically dominated, shows he may have the broader appeal needed to be the first Republican since Walter Pool (who only served five months before dying in office in 1883) to serve the district.

Republicans should not downplay the appeal of incumbent Don Davis, though. He has also done a great job of positioning himself as a moderate, independent-thinking member well suited to the district. Davis joined Tillis, former Gov. Pat McCrory, and other swing-voting politicians in aligning with the “No Labels” movement. He has criticized Kamala Harris on illegal immigration, and during his time at the North Carolina General Assembly, he was known to frequently cross the aisle as well.

Some on the left even criticize Davis as going too far to court conservatives and moderates. An article from NC Newsline, a progressive publication, noted some discontent with the fact that he voted 12.6% of the time with Republicans, including on things like Medicaid and tobacco, far beyond the aisle-crossing of his predecessor, Butterfield, who voted 1.1% with the GOP.

The article claims that his voting choices make him the fourth most-conservative Democrat and put him to the right of many blue-state Republicans, according to GovTrack.us.

To be clear, Davis is a Democrat, and he votes overwhelmingly with Democrats. But in a toss-up district, he’s been able to make the case that he’s putting their needs above his party loyalty. Both he and Roberson will be strong candidates for their respective sides if they make it out of their primaries.

Whether any others jump in the primaries, be it a progressive Democrat who thinks Davis has made too many concessions or a MAGA hardliner who doesn’t buy Roberson’s grassroots bona fides, is unclear. But the race is bound to be a very competitive (and expensive) battle — one which political observers will keep a close eye on.