After the most bizarre political summer anybody can possibly remember, Carolina Journal returned to the polling field for its August poll. When we last polled in May, President Joe Biden was still the presumptive Democratic nominee and former President Trump had not been shot. The debate that ended the political career of President Biden had yet to take place.
The August poll shows Republican Donald Trump leading Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris by 3 points, 47% to 44%, a slight improvement for Democrats from our May poll that showed Trump leading Biden by 4.5%.
It is worth noting that Harris still trails Trump after several weeks of glowing press coverage, which represents a “sugar-high honeymoon” that is unlikely to continue. If Harris is going to be elected president, she is going to have to answer questions and explain how her polices are similar and different than President Joe Biden’s.
The 3-point lead for Trump in North Carolina shows a slight tightening of the race. But it basically puts the race back to the small, durable lead that Trump had most of 2023 and early 2024, before the debate performance and questions of Biden’s age and ability overtook the campaign.
There has not been a public poll that showed Trump losing North Carolina in the last 18 months. However, the Harris campaign may peak in support at the end of the month with the Democratic convention. I suspect Harris will be close enough that the campaign will stay committed to North Carolina through the election, forcing Trump to spend time and money to keep the state red.
By a nose, most of the information in our August poll is good for Republicans. Voters rank the top issues as inflation/jobs/economy, issues that Republicans are stronger on currently. Republicans also lead on the generic legislative and congressional ballot by about a point and half.
In the race for attorney general, Republican Congressman Dan Bishop leads Democrat Congressman Jeff Jackson by four points, 42% to 38%.
The poll shows Republicans leading races for lieutenant governor, auditor, superintendent of public instruction, labor commissioner, treasurer, and state Supreme Court by roughly 2-5 points in each. It is worth noting that these are all extremely close races within the margin or error and can go either way on election day. It is also important to note that the advantage Republican candidates hold is similar to the advantage Trump has and that none of these races have seen significant spending.
These races stand in sharp contrast to North Carolina governors race, where a strong series of negative ads have taken a toll on Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.
Robinson trails Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein by 5 points, 46% to Robinson at 41%.
While former President Donald Trump is losing women by 5 points, Robinson is losing women by 12 points, indicating the barrage of ads attacking Robinson on abortion are working. Robinson is winning men by 5 points, but Trump is winning men by 13 points.
Independents/unaffiliated voters are a challenge for Robinson currently. Trump is winning unaffiliated voters by 10 points, but Mark Robinson is losing them by 10 points. Trump is winning 93% of Republicans, but Robinson is only winning 82% of GOP voters.
The Stein campaign along with like-minded outside efforts has been effective over the summer, changing the dynamics of the race. The Carolina Journal poll had Robinson leading by nearly 5 points in March of this year. Stein had cut that to two in April and had the race tied by May. Now Stein leads by 5 points overall, while Stein is seen as stronger on job creation and crime fighting by 3 points and education by 5 points.
This column has noted that while Republicans have gained strength overall in North Carolina, they still face a structural disadvantage in this years governor’s race. Two of North Carolina’s last four governors are former state attorney generals. By contrast, five recent lieutenant governors have run for governor, but only one has been successful.
Nobody should count Robinson out. To win he needs several things to happen. He has to improve his performance with female and unaffiliated voters. And he also has to consolidate the GOP/Trump vote. He also will need the general election to swing a little more to the GOP side of the scale, with Trump crossing 50% and perhaps a 5-point win. Otherwise, North Carolina is likely to follow its familiar script of electing a Republican for president and a Democrat for governor.