As North Carolina undergoes rapid urbanization, its political landscape stands at a crossroads, with implications extending far beyond statewide elections. The state’s evolution from a state that has leaned conservative in recent years to one poised to become a true battleground reflects the profound impact of urbanization on its politics.
The numbers tell a compelling story: North Carolina sees an annual migration of 100,000 to 120,000 individuals, the majority of whom settle in urban areas. The 2020 census revealed that 50% of these migrants choose to call Wake and Mecklenburg counties home, concentrating political influence in these urban hubs and reshaping the state’s demographics while challenging traditional political norms.
Population density is now a significant predictor of electoral outcomes, with a clear divide between urban and rural areas. Counties with higher population densities, around 500 people per square mile, consistently favor Democratic candidates. In contrast, President Trump secured victories in counties with lower population densities, around 150 people per square mile, highlighting the stark urban-rural divide in North Carolina’s political landscape.
This growing urbanization presents conservatives with a pivotal opportunity. As urban populations rise and reshape the electorate, conservatives should seize the moment to refocus their agenda on issues that resonate with both urban and suburban voters — such as housing, infrastructure, school choice, and public safety. These are issues that transcend traditional political boundaries and directly address the concerns of North Carolina’s rapidly changing population.
The rise of bedroom communities around urban centers, fueled by the allure of job opportunities and modern amenities, is also reshaping the political landscape. However, as these communities grow, they face challenges, such as a lack of affordable housing and increasing infrastructure demands. Conservatives can take the lead by advocating for policies that promote home building, reduce regulatory barriers, and encourage investment in infrastructure, positioning themselves as problem solvers for North Carolina’s urbanizing regions.
School choice offers another avenue where conservatives can appeal to urban and suburban voters alike. Many families in urban areas are frustrated by the quality of public education and seek better alternatives for their children. By championing school choice, conservatives can not only address a key concern for families but also appeal to a growing demographic of minority voters who are seeking educational opportunities for their children.
Public safety is also a crucial issue that transcends the urban-rural divide. As crime rates rise in urban areas, voters increasingly prioritize policies that emphasize both safety and community investment. Conservatives can address these concerns by advocating for strong public-safety measures alongside efforts to address root causes of crime, such as a lack of access to jobs and education. By positioning themselves as advocates for safe, thriving communities, conservatives can connect with urban voters who seek both security and opportunity.
The Hispanic population, now comprising 10% of the state’s residents but only 4% of the current electorate, is another key demographic that will shape future elections. As their children come of voting age, their political influence will grow. This demographic shift, alongside increasing urbanization, represents an opportunity for conservatives to rethink their strategies and focus on policies that appeal to a broader electorate.
The urban-rural divide in North Carolina is not just about geography — it has significant implications for public policy. Urban areas like Charlotte, Raleigh, and Greensboro have different needs and priorities compared to rural counties. Urban centers are more concerned with issues like transportation, healthcare access, economic development, and education funding, while rural areas face challenges related to agricultural development, resource allocation, and maintaining infrastructure. Conservatives must recognize these differences and craft policies that address the distinct needs of both urban and rural voters while finding common ground.
Lawmakers tasked with redrawing voting districts must grapple with these shifting population dynamics, which not only impact electoral campaigning but also pose challenges for maintaining Republican majorities. The growing influence of urban voters, paired with the decline in population across 50 counties, is reshaping the political map. Conservatives must adapt to these new realities by embracing policies that appeal to both urban and rural communities.
Rather than viewing urbanization as a threat, conservatives should embrace it as an opportunity. By focusing on practical, voter-centric issues like housing, infrastructure, school choice, and public safety, they can broaden their appeal to North Carolina’s increasingly diverse and urban population. This is a moment to refocus the conservative message, emphasizing policies that address the needs of both rural and urban voters and positioning the party as a forward-thinking force in North Carolina’s evolving political landscape.