The unthinkable has happened. The MAGA faithful, maybe one of the most loyal political groups centered around a single individual in American history, have begun to publicly turn on and criticize Donald Trump. There have been a decade of stories that mainstream media and his political opponents were certain would end the president’s rock-solid support among his followers. But nothing seemed to stick, until now, with his administration’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case.

After campaign promises to get to the bottom of the child sex-trafficking ring associated with Epstein, the Trump DOJ announced that they’d concluded their investigation. To the surprise and disbelief of many, they said Epstein most likely did commit suicide, there is no client list, and there would be no additional people charged in the matter. Social media accounts with “America First,” MAGA, and other Trump-related slogans immediately opened fire on the issue, calling out the administration for mishandling the case or even hiding the information.

US Sen. Thom Tillis, the outgoing North Carolina Republican who hasn’t minded clashing with Trump or his MAGA base, called this week for them to simply “Release the damn files.”

Mark Robinson, former lieutenant governor and Republican nominee for governor, also chimed in, saying conservatives should not let the issue divide them. He said that the bigger issue was that there are Jeffrey Epstein’s still active in neighborhoods across the country; “They are everywhere.”

Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, a close ally of Trump, said he thinks appointing a special prosecutor for the case would bring “harmony” between the president and his base.

It’s not surprising that those like Tillis or former Vice President Mike Pence are forcefully calling out the Trump administration on this. But when important allies like US House Speaker Mike Johnson and MAGA base rabble-rousers Reps. Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor Greene join in, that signals trouble.

So what it is about this particular issue that seems to have finally broken the dam?

The Epstein issue goes to the heart of what made Trump so popular with his base in the first place. They believed there was a deep state behind a lot of things going on in the federal government, that there were conspiracies, including things like child sex trafficking, and that it involved members of both parties and the permanent bureaucracy. Trump gained a lot of credibility among his supporters by affirming their suspicions and promising he was the man to uncover the secrets and “drain the swamp.” They believed him. In a word, he gained their trust.

But when the results of the investigation seem to have returned similar answers as previous attempts to get to the bottom of the Epstein organization, the entire basis of that trust came into question. Didn’t Trump go to Washington to finally give answers on just this kind of corruption (where the rich and powerful appear to have visited Epstein’s island to have access to young girls)? Why wouldn’t he release this information?

There are only so many conclusions to be drawn here. One possibility is that there really wasn’t as much of a deep conspiracy here as was assumed. Maybe Epstein was a fairly independent actor, apart from his co-conspirators Ghislaine Maxwell and Les Wexner (the billionaire Victoria Secret mogul who gave Epstein his jet and initial access to wealth). Maybe the flight logs of powerful people visiting the island were just evidence that Epstein sought connections and influence, but that’s about where the conspiracy ended.

Another possibility that the MAGA faithful appear to be considering is that Trump knows there’s more to it but doesn’t want to release that information — for any number of reasons. But the lack of answers has made the rumor mill run wild. Is he holding on to the files to use for leverage? To protect national security? To protect powerful friends? Maybe even himself?

But the point is, that inherent trust between Trump and his base is on perhaps its shakiest ground since he descended the escalator in 2015. And trust, in politics and in general, is hard to patch back together once it’s lost. Other issues that were ignored out of loyalty may suddenly be thrown into the mix too. Once the dam bursts on criticism, it can’t always be held back.

It’s not clear to me exactly what the facts are with regard to Epstein — whether he killed himself or not, whether he was part of a much bigger plot or not. But to maintain the trust of his supporters, Trump may be forced to reverse course. From a figure who has not often bent his will to the demands of critics, even his supporters, this is an important moment. Whether he comes out of this as the unchallenged, and often unchallengable, leader of American conservatism could have major implications for elections, policy, and much else.

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