Former President Trump continues to lead President Joe Biden in the Tarheel state, as efforts to convict and possibly imprison the former president appear to be backfiring on North Carolina Democrats, according to a new poll of 600 likely general election voters conducted by Spry Strategies from June 7 to June 11. Spry employs a hybrid method that combines multiple data collection methods: IVR, Live Landline & Online Mobile. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points.

Trump leads Biden in a head-to-head matchup by 4%, with 48% indicating they will vote for Trump and 44% indicating they plan to vote for Biden. 8.5% are undecided. Trump’s lead expands when independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included, with 45% indicating they will support Trump, 37% favoring Biden, and 8% Kennedy. The Kennedy campaign has submitted signatures in an effort to qualify for the North Carolina ballot. The signature drive is under review by the Democratic party-controlled North Carolina Board of Elections.

In Carolina Journal’s most recent poll, conducted in May, Trump’s support came in at 42.6% and Biden’s support was 38.1%.

The Spry results are similar to other recent polls. Currently, Trump is leading in the Real Clear Politics avg of NC polls by 5.3%. Biden has not led a public North Carolina poll since March of 2023. 57% of North Carolina voters disapprove of the job President Biden is doing, with half of all NC voters strongly disapproving. 

Asked to reflect on Trump’s time as president, 52% of voters indicated they approve of the job he did as president, while 46% disapprove. 

Interesting that of the Trump supporters, 79% say they voted for Trump in 2016 and/or 2020. However, 14% said they recently became a Trump supporter “because of the sad state of the nation under Joe Biden.” 1.6% of Trump supporters said they were “anti-Trump until the weaponization of the Justice system” was used against him.

Biden weak with his own party

Trump is commanding a full 85% of Republicans, while Biden is only winning 71% of self-identified Democrats. 

Trump support among African Americans and youth rises

Joe Biden is currently attracting less than half of African-American voters (49%), with Trump attracting 23% and RFK receiving 20%.

“Former President Trump continues to show historic strength with African-Americans, who normally fall into the Democratic camp,” said Spry Strategies president Ryan Burrell. “We know this not only because of our survey results along with others, but the recent actions of the Biden campaign clearly show they are worried about this problematic trend. Trump’s incredible support in NC with African Americans could help Mark Robinson, and Mark Robinson may be responsible for some of the Trump’s historic support with this crucial demographic.”

Biden continues to struggle with key age groups. The only age group Biden is currently winning is the youth vote (18-34), where Biden leads Trump 38% to 34%, a historically small margin for Democrats. RFK Jr is pulling 15%.

Trump leads every other age group.

35-54 — Trump 50%   Biden 33%    RFK 9%

55-64 — Trump 49%   Biden 36%  RFK 3%

65-Up — Trump 44%   Biden 41%  RFK 3%

When voters were asked whether “their families economic security and personal safety was better under Biden or Trump,” half of voters said Trump while only 35% said Biden. 10% of Democrats say that their situation was better under Trump. Half of independent/unaffiliated voters say life was better under Trump, while only a third say life has been better under Biden. 29% of African Americans say life was better under Trump and a whopping 80% of Hispanics agree. 

On Trump’s New York criminal trial, 56% of voters believe the guilty verdict, along with the other charges against Trump, are politically motivated, while 40% disagree. Of the people who believe the charges are political, a whopping 85% blame Biden and the Department of Justice. Half of voters say the criminal conviction will not make any difference in how they vote, with slightly more voters saying the conviction makes them less likely to vote for Trump (27%) as opposed to more likely to vote for him. (23%)

“Trump remains in strong position in North Carolina, perhaps as strong as he has ever been,” said Burell. “At this point in 2020, the Real Clear Politics average (RCP) was Biden +1, and today it is Trump 5.3%. It is worth noting that Trump exceeded his mid-June average of +1 in 2016, winning by 3.7% and in 2020 actual winning North Carolina by 1.3%, while training in the RCP average by 1 point.”

For down-ballot North Carolina Republicans, a strong showing by Trump will be key to other statewide victories. The Spry survey showed 43% of North Carolina voters favoring Republican Mark Robinson, with 39% favoring Democrat Josh Stein, and 13% remaining undecided.  

45% of North Carolina voters view Robinson favorably, while 42% see him unfavorably. Stein is also viewed favorably by 45% of voters, but only 23% view him as unfavorable. 

It is worth noting that, unlike the presidential race, which has been in full swing for many month, the governor’s race is in its infancy, with polling all over the map. In Carolina Journal’s May poll, the race was dead even. The current RCP polling average has the race dead even, with about half polls showing Stein leading and half showing a tied race or a slight Robinson edge.

Two other key statewide races, for lieutenant governor and state Supreme Court are statically tied. Republican Hal Weatherman leads Democrat Rachel Hunt by less than a point, with roughly 38% of voters supporting each candidate, and a huge 21% undecided.  Similarly, Democrat Allison Riggs leads Republican Jefferson Griffin for North Carolina Supreme Court 39% to 37%. 

However, Republicans are leading the congressional generic ballot by 8 points, 48% to 40%.

“The central question at this point is can Republicans solidify support down the ballot?”, said Burell. “Recent history shows that 3–5% of North Carolina voters will support Trump and Democratic statewide candidates. If Trump can hold or increase his lead to 5% or better, Republicans will have a strong showing. If Biden can close the gap to a couple of points, both parties will have some victories to crow about.”

Trump continues to be closer to North Carolina voters on the topic of illegal immigration. When asked, “Would you support mass deportation of immigrants who entered the country illegally?”, 62% of North Carolina voters are in support, while only 33% disagree. 90% of Republicans are in support, as are 58% of unaffiliated voters, along with 36% of Democrats. 

“I think this shows that Biden’s extreme open-border policies are grading on the American people’s compassion for immigration,” Burell said. “I think voters of all parties see a complete lack of hope that the border situation will improve, and the American people are concerned about the waves of able-bodied males coming in unvetted, from 137-plus countries around the world. They remember the securest border in decades under Trump.”