Fresh off a decisive election victory where voters voiced frustrations about rising prices, President-elect Donald Trump seems to have waved his pen to make Thanksgiving dinner more affordable. Outgoing President Joe Biden would also like to take credit. It’s a compelling narrative — one that fits neatly into the post-election political landscape — but the reality of why turkey prices are falling this year is less dramatic. This year’s cheaper Thanksgiving meal is largely rooted in market forces, not political actions.
The average cost of a 16-pound turkey is $27 in 2024, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. That’s a 6% drop compared to last year, when inflation and supply chain disruptions left shoppers grappling with sticker shock at the grocery store. The broader cost of Thanksgiving dinner is also down slightly. In North Carolina, the average cost of a traditional Thanksgiving meal for 10 people — including turkey, stuffing, mashed potatoes, cranberries, and pumpkin pie — is approximately $61.71, a modest improvement from last year’s high prices.
But what’s driving these changes? For one, the avian flu outbreak that devastated turkey flocks over the past two years has significantly eased. In 2022, millions of turkeys had to be culled due to the virus, leading to shortages and higher prices. This year, fewer cases of avian flu have been reported, allowing turkey populations to recover. With a larger supply available, prices have naturally decreased.
Lower transportation and grain costs have also played a role. Feed costs, which account for a significant portion of turkey-production expenses, have stabilized after spiking during the pandemic. Similarly, fuel prices — which impact everything from farm equipment to the trucks delivering turkeys to stores — have been less volatile this year. These factors have combined to bring some relief to farmers and consumers alike.
Biden supporters who credit the administration’s economic policies for the decline in turkey prices would be mistaken, as the key drivers behind this year’s cheaper Thanksgiving are largely independent of presidential influence. It’s important to avoid oversimplifying the narrative. Lower turkey prices are primarily the result of improved market conditions rather than direct political intervention. While the administration has worked to stabilize the economy, factors like avian flu recovery and reduced input costs have played a much larger role in making this Thanksgiving more affordable.
Yet, even with these improvements, Thanksgiving isn’t universally cheaper for everyone. Prices can vary widely depending on location. For instance, in Hawaii, the cost of a 15-pound turkey averages $52.85, while in Oklahoma, the same turkey costs just $19.75. In North Carolina, a 15-pound turkey averages $34.85 — closer to the national average but still higher than pre-pandemic prices. Families in different regions may experience very different levels of relief this holiday season.
The narrative that President-elect Trump single-handedly lowered the price of Thanksgiving dinner is also a tempting one, particularly in the wake of an election where economic concerns took center stage. But it too is a narrative that oversimplifies the complex interplay of market dynamics, agricultural recovery, and economic policy.
As families gather around the table this Thanksgiving, they’ll sit down for a meal that’s a little easier on the wallet than last year. Whether it’s the result of improved markets or thoughtful policy, the outcome is the same: more people can focus on the joy of the holiday rather than the cost of their dinner. And that, perhaps, is something we can all be thankful for.