As North Carolina’s senior senator, Thom Tillis finds himself in a complicated position ahead of his 2026 re-election campaign. While he has demonstrated political resilience in his past races, he again faces growing scrutiny from within his own party, a potential Democratic challenger with deep fundraising capabilities, and the ever-present influence of President Donald Trump in Republican primaries.

Earlier this week, Tillis played a pivotal role in confirming Pete Hegseth as secretary of Defense, casting the 50th vote in the Senate before Vice President JD Vance broke the tie. A Wall Street Journal article quickly followed with claims from Hegseth’s former sister-in-law, who claimed Tillis told her that her testimony against Hegseth would “carry weight” and could convince senators to cast “no” votes. Tillis did not deny the claim but said he simply could not corroborate her story in more than 30 interviews and due diligence. He said he spent two hours in frank discussion with Hegseth, ultimately casting a vote of confidence for him.

Obviously, I was not privy to the inside scoop on this story, but having worked for the North Carolina House during Tillis’ time as speaker, when Republicans first took majority control of the state legislature, I recognize his process. He is strategic, contemplative, and, like it or not, a pragmatist. This decision most assuredly followed extensive personal research and deliberation, reflecting Tillis’ preference for measured governance rather than immediate alignment. However, the story has already drawn social media fire from some within the GOP, and it highlights the challenge that Tillis has ahead in 2026.

Tillis has voted with President Trump’s agenda about 90% of the time, but that 10% has generated headlines and reinforced a tenuous relationship with portions of the North Carolina GOP base. He’s drawn distinctions on issues like immigration reform, where he advocated for legal status pathways for DACA recipients; he supported a funding measure for red flag laws; and was critical of Trump’s use of emergency declarations to fund the border wall, although he eventually voted for it. His work negotiating the Respect For Marriage Act, which enshrined protections for same-sex marriages in federal law, was one of issues that led some Republicans to question his conservative credentials. In 2023, two-thirds of the NCGOP delegates voted to censure him.

However, the big challenge for Republicans and Tillis as they tackle 2026 will be to highlight Tillis’ role as NC House speaker when Republicans took the reins for the first time in a century. His legacy of spearheading an ambitious and successful policy agenda including lower taxes, reduced regulations, and building the Rainy Day Fund for North Carolina, kicked off a decade of prosperity here that helped the state grow despite recession, inflation, and a global pandemic. His tenure also saw major shifts in unemployment benefits, voter ID laws, and other policies that continue to shape political debates in the state.

That legacy is likely to provide fodder for Democrats, particularly those who backed the weekly “Moral Monday” demonstrations throughout that time of policy changes, even if that record appeals to fiscal conservatives. The Tillis campaign’s challenge will be to make that connection for primary voters, and provide real strategies to bring that state-level agenda to a federal government reeling from a bloated bureaucracy and overspending.

It won’t be easy. The field of his potential primary challengers is growing, and the war chest will have to be big. Tillis’ 2014 victory against incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan and his narrow 1.8% 2020 win over Cal Cunningham both highlight his ability to fundraise and navigate tough electoral waters. Approximately $300 million was spent in total on the 2020 race, making it the most expensive Senate campaign in US history at that time. It is anticipated that the 2026 race may break that record.

Several potential primary challengers loom. Lara Trump, daughter-in-law of the president, could pose the most formidable threat should she choose to enter the race. Michelle Morrow’s name has also been floating around. She is a former grassroots candidate for North Carolina’s Superintendent of Public Instruction, who was able to really reach that GOP base. She did surprisingly well, upsetting Republican incumbent Catherine Truitt in the primary, and has since launched a national education nonprofit. Former Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, once considered a strong contender and a GOP grassroots favorite, appears unlikely to run due to mounting controversies.

Andy Nilsson, of the Triad, has already declared candidacy for the primary, sporting a Trump hat, despite a history of creating an alternative Republican convention to oppose Trump with former Republican, Judge Bob Orr. Nilsson now says he is on-board the Trump train. But the anti-Trump history and lack of widespread name recognition could be obstacles in the primary, though he might draw in unaffiliateds, or even Democrats, in the general election.

With that in mind, North Carolina’s general election will likely yield a formidable opponent from the Democrats.  

A well-financed Democratic challenge?

On the Democratic side, two names stand out: former governor Roy Cooper and former congressman Wiley Nickel. Cooper, a prolific fundraiser, has demonstrated an ability to direct substantial financial resources into key races and, despite more than three decades in state government, has maintained a favorable public opinion. While much of his recent efforts have gone toward supporting Attorney General Josh Stein’s successful gubernatorial bid, Cooper’s war chest remains significant.

Meanwhile, Nickel has been highly active on social media, particularly in attacking Tillis over the Hegseth confirmation and on broader redistricting concerns in North Carolina. If he declares within the next two months, as expected, he could position himself as a formidable challenger.

Attorney General Jeff Jackson is another possibility, but his political future remains more fluid. Any Democratic challenger will need to overcome North Carolina’s Republican tilt in federal races, but the state remains a battleground with competitive down-ballot races.

A tough but winnable fight

Tillis enters 2026 with the advantages of incumbency, the real-time results of implementing fiscally conservative policy, and a history of surviving tough races. However, his ability to navigate a primary challenge without alienating the GOP base will be critical. If he faces Lara Trump, the race could become a high-profile battle over the future direction of the Republican Party in North Carolina.

On the Democratic side, a well-funded challenger like Roy Cooper or an aggressive campaigner like Wiley Nickel could make the general election just as competitive. As the race takes shape, Tillis’ ability to leverage his legislative record, maintain credibility with conservatives, and fend off both primary and general election challengers will determine his political future.