As I wrote last week, it looks like North Carolina Republicans are defying their usual habits and voting early. Unless Democrats can defy their own habits by coming out big on Election Day (which Republicans have typically dominated), it appears they will have a bad election night, as far as North Carolina is concerned.

The overall early voting numbers are disastrous for Democrats, per data available as of Thursday Oct. 31. Keep in mind, the data is looking at how those voting are registered not how they actually voted, which isn’t public. But this data tends to give a good picture of whose turnout operation is performing better.

As you can see in the chart below, Republicans started out much stronger than usual (the difference between the pale red line of 2020 and dark red of 2024) and have been able to maintain about 34% of voters throughout early voting, with only a couple days to go. They’ve even held an outright lead over the last week, as the registered Democrats have fallen from 36% of voters to now under 33%. All of this was a shock to almost everyone.

Votes through Oct. 30, produced by Andy Jackson of John Locke Foundation’s Civitas Center for Public Integrity.

Now, instead of relying on a massive surge on Election Day, Republicans can win with a more modest turnout. The early voting numbers are not just unusual due to the increase in Republicans. As the chart shows, the other half of the story is that Democrats have not been motivated to show up to the polls, with about 320,000 fewer voting compared with 2020.

There was some foreshadowing of this turnout problem for Democrats earlier in the year, with the 2024 North Carolina primaries. The state went from over 805,000 primary votes in 2020 to less than 700,000 in 2024. And the main cause of the dropoff was low turnout from those voting in Democratic primary. This can be partially explained by the lack of a competitive primary at the top of the ticket (as incumbent President Joe Biden was the assumed nominee), but political observers note that failure to get voters out in the primary often leads to loss of interest and enthusiasm that hurts turnout in the general.

The main question for Democrats during early voting has been: Where is the “Obama coalition” that led to their 2008 North Carolina victory? Without these voters, it’s unclear how the party can cobble together the votes to win the state in 2024.

When Barack Obama won North Carolina, and the presidency, in 2008, the black vote was 27% of North Carolina’s overall vote, a historically high number. By 2016, though, the black vote had dropped to 22% of the electorate, and it dropped further to 19% in 2020. The downward trend appears to be continuing, if current proportions hold, with the black vote now only at 17%.

One tool Democrats have used in the past to increase black turnout is an effort that’s been called “souls to the polls,” where black churchgoers are shuttled to voting sites on Sundays. This year, both Sundays during the early vote period (Oct. 20 and Oct. 27) were disappointing in terms of black turnout, however, with black voters only making up 19-20% of the electorate on those days. In 2008, it was about double that.

Young voters have also been showing up in smaller numbers so far this cycle. And, to add insult to injury, the young voters who are showing up are actually slightly more likely to be registered Republican than Democrat (as can be seen below). With unaffiliated voters dwarfing voters of either party among this demographic, and with young unaffiliated voters typically leaning to the left, the votes are likely to come out in the Democrats favor. But it does not appear that the huge pool of votes Democrats will need from this demographic, to help them make up for losses elsewhere, is forming.

NC voters 18-25 by party registration through Oct. 30.

Voters who are part of both of these demographics (black and young) are an even clearer sign of the turnout problem. In 2008, 34% of 18-25 year old voters in North Carolina were black. This time, so far, it is only 15%. It appears that the young, energetic minority coalition just hasn’t coalesced for Kamala Harris the same way as it did for Obama.

The Democrats last hope: Election Day

Democrats have, so far, not matched Republicans’ early enthusiasm. But could an Election Day surge overcome this?

In order for this to happen, though, two things would have to occur:

  • Republican numbers on Election Day would have to fail expectations. And this is a real possibility, if the large early vote numbers “cannibalized” from their Election Day numbers and Republicans can’t find any lower-propensity voters to fill in the gaps.
  • Democrats have to reverse a massive voter-enthusiasm issue. If young voters, black voters, and other parts of the usual Democrat coalition simply aren’t showing up in the same numbers so far, Democrats will have to find a way to energize them if they have any hope of catching up on Election Day.

Chatting about this with some seasoned political analysts, they tell me, “That’s just not how it works.” If Democrat voters (who historically dominate early voting) haven’t come out to vote, it’s not typically because they all just decided to wait until Election Day. It’s a problem of overall enthusiasm. It could even be that parts of the coalition are fracturing or moving from strong Democrat to uncommitted. (Which could be the case, since there’s evidence both young men and black men shifted at least some towards the Republican Party this cycle.)

Of course, all political predictions are just that, and only the final vote count will tell the story. Who knows? Republicans made history already with their early vote surge. There’s always a chance, however small, that Democrats could make history, too, with a huge Election Day turnout. But I wouldn’t bet on it.