October 17, 2024
RALEIGH – The race for president remains at a statistical tie in North Carolina, a key battleground state on the road to the White House. Former President Donald Trump (47.2%) is .6 points ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris (46.6%). The number of undecided voters has declined to 4.1%. Only 2% of voters say they will vote for a third-party candidate. Just under one percent say they will vote for Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, .6% say they will vote for Justice for All Party candidate Cornel West, .4% say they will vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and .1% say they will vote for Constitution Party Randall Terry.
Josh Stein has increased his lead in the highly publicized gubernatorial race. At 49.3%, Democratic candidate Stein is 13.5% ahead of Republican candidate Mark Robinson (35.8%). Robinson’s support is down 3.4 points from last month, on the tails of a media firestorm and numerous staff resignations, while Stein’s support is up 3.8 points. Libertarian Mike Ross has 2.5% support, Green Party candidate Wayne Turner has .8% support, and Constitution Party candidate Vinny Smith has .3% support. Just over 11% of voters are undecided in this race.
“The road to the White House continues to run through the Old North State in the 2024 presidential election, with Trump and Harris locked in a statistical tie. But what’s equally interesting is the state’s long-standing pattern of ballot-splitting,” said Carolina Journal publisher and John Locke Foundation CEO Donald Bryson. “North Carolina has split parties on the gubernatorial and presidential tickets in six of the last nine elections.”
Democrat Rachel Hunt has also increased her lead in the race for Lt. Governor, though, less dramatically. Hunt (43.3%) now leads Republican Hal Weatherman (40.8%) by 2.5 points. Her lead has increased by one point since last month. Libertarian Shannon Bray received 2.2% support, Constitution Party candidate Wayne Jones received one percent, and 12.7% remain undecided.
Democrats have taken the lead in the poll’s generic race for the North Carolina General Assembly. Support for Republicans is similar to last month, at 45.8%, but support for Democrats went up by .9 points, giving the Democrats a slim plurality of voter support (46.6%). Republicans, however, still hold a narrow lead in the generic congressional ballot. While Republicans maintain the lead (46.9%), support declined by one percent from last month, while support for Democrats increased 1.6 points to 46.4%.
Bryson continued, “While Democrats have taken a slight lead in the generic General Assembly ballot, Republicans still hold a narrow advantage in congressional races. This demonstrates that despite shifts in statewide preferences, North Carolina remains highly competitive at all levels of government.”
Democrat candidate for Attorney General, Jeff Jackson, also pulled further ahead of Republican Dan Bishop (43.4%) this month. At 46.1%, his lead increased from 1.5 points last month to 2.7 points this month. Democrat Elaine Marshall’s vote share increased to 45.1%, a 2.2-point lead over Republican Chad Brown (42.9%).
While Democrat Maurice “Mo” Green is still ahead in the State Superintendent race, his lead over Michelle Morrow narrowed from 4.1 points last month to 2.5 points in October. Green (45.7%) has a plurality of support over Republican Michelle Morrow (43.2%).
Two statewide races flipped this month from a Democratic lead to a Republican lead. Republican Luke Farley (43.5%) took the lead over Democrat Braxton Winston II (41.7%) for the Labor Commissioner. Farley went from being behind by 1.5 points in September to ahead by 2.5 points this month. The State Supreme Court race saw an even larger shift, with Republican Jefferson Griffin (44.7%) coming back from a 2.5-point disadvantage against Democrat Allison Riggs (43.3%) to a 1.4-point advantage.
The tightest race is for State Auditor. where Republican Dave Boliek’s (40.4%) lead has shrunk to .3 points over Democrat Jessica Holmes (40.1%). This race has a high share of undecided voters, at 16%. The State Treasurer’s race has a slightly more sizable lead, with Republican Brad Briner (43.4%) 1.5 points ahead of Democrat Wesley Harris (41.9%).
Incumbent Republican Mike Causey (44.2%) holds a 3.2-point lead over Democratic challenger Natasha Marcus (41%) in the race for Insurance Commissioner. Incumbent Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler has the greatest lead among Republicans, with a 6.9-point lead over Democratic challenger Sarah Taber. Libertarian Sean Haugh has 2.4% of voter support.
When voters were asked which issues were the most important to them this election cycle, the most commonly cited concern was inflation (32.1%). Abortion (16.2%) was the second most frequently cited, followed by jobs/economy (14.5%), immigration (12.8%), taxes/spending (8.5%), education (5.5%), energy/environment (3.9%), and crime/public safety (3.3%).
In the wake of Hurricane Helene, we asked likely voters about who should bear the responsibility of disaster recovery. Most voters (62.2%) believe it is equally the responsibility of the federal and state/local government, 22.7% believe it is the responsibility of the federal government, and 11.2% of voters believe it is the responsibility of state and local government.
When asked their views about the Federal Emergency Management Agency, a slim plurality (48.2%) of voters have an unfavorable opinion of FEMA, while 46.4% said they have at least a somewhat favorable opinion.
Pessimism about the direction of the state has declined since last month’s poll. The share of people saying the state is on the “wrong track” has declined 7.2 points from 52.6% last month to 45.4% this month. The share of voters who believe North Carolina is on the “right track” increased 5.3 points to 38.2%.