September 19, 2024
RALEIGH – The presidential race is tighter than ever in North Carolina. In the first Carolina Journal Poll following the presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris (entering the field just hours after the second assassination attempt), Trump’s lead has shrunk to 0.3 points – well within the poll’s ±3.99% margin of error. This statistical tie reflects a reduction in Trump’s lead over Harris by 2.8 points. Currently, 6% of voters remain undecided.
“North Carolina is being courted closely both by the Harris and Trump campaigns,” said Carolina Journal publisher and John Locke Foundation CEO Donald Bryson. “Both of these candidates are making frequent visits to the Old North State, and with a race this tight, I doubt we’ll see less of them as they attempt to score the state’s 16 electoral votes.”
Third-party presidential candidates have the support of 3.1% of voters. The Justice For All Party’s Cornel West leads third-party candidates with 1.6% of the vote, followed by Libertarian Chase Oliver with 0.9%, then the Green Party’s Jill Stein. Lastly, 0.2% of voters said they would vote for the Constitution Party’s Randall Terry.
When asked what voters think about third-party candidates, a plurality (49.3%) said they believe it is good to have more options, while 34.7% said these candidates take votes from major party candidates. Unaffiliated voters are the most likely to support third-party candidates (60%), while half of registered Democrats and only 39% of registered Republicans agree.
The Democratic Party’s gubernatorial candidate, Josh Stein (45.5%), has expanded his lead in the race against Republican candidate Mark Robinson (39.2%). This reflects a 6.3-point lead, which is notably higher than his 4.4-point lead last month. Third-party candidates in this race saw a decline in support this month, with Libertarian Mike Ross at 2.4%, Green Party’s Wayne Turner at 0.3%, and Constitution Party’s Vinny Smith at just 0.2%.
Democrats have taken the lead in many statewide races where Republicans previously had the advantage. The races for State Superintendent, Supreme Court Justice, Attorney General, Lieutenant Governor, and Labor Commissioner have all flipped since last month’s poll. Among these, Democrats’ strongest lead is in the race for Superintendent of Public Instruction. Maurice “Mo” Green (43.3%) is 4.1 points ahead of Republican Michele Morrow (39.2%). This marks a dramatic shift from last month’s poll, where Morrow was ahead by 5.1 points.
The party’s second-largest lead is in the race for North Carolina Supreme Court Justice. Sitting Justice Allison Riggs (43.7%) is 2.5 points ahead of Republican Appeals Court Judge Jefferson Griffin (41.2%). In the race for Secretary of State, Democrat Elaine Marshall (43.2%) is ahead of Republican Chad Brown (41.5%) by 1.7 points.
Democrat Jeff Jackson (44.6%) leads Republican Dan Bishop (43.1%) by 1.5 points in the race for Attorney General. This is a sizable change from last month, where Bishop led by 3.9 points. Similarly, Democrat Rachel Hunt (41.6%) has a 1.5-point advantage over Republican Hal Weatherman (40.1%) in the Lieutenant Governor race. A combined 2.9% of voters plan to vote for a third-party candidate. Libertarian candidate Shannon Bray and Constitution Party candidate Wayne Jones garnered 1.7% and 1.2% of the vote, respectively.
The tightest race is for Labor Commissioner, where Democrat Braxton Winston II (41.3%) leads Republican Luke Farley (40.9%) by less than half a point. This race still has many undecided voters, at 17.8% of those surveyed.
Republicans still hold leads in four Council of State races: State Treasurer, Auditor, Commissioner of Agriculture, and Commissioner of Insurance. Republicans’ greatest advantage is in the race for Commissioner of Agriculture. Incumbent Steve Troxler (41.1%) holds a 3.2-point lead over Democrat Sarah Taber (37.9%). Libertarian Sean Haugh had 1.9% support. In the race for Treasurer, Republican Brad Briner (42.1%) leads Democrat Wesley Harris (40.4%) by 1.7 points. Similarly, Commissioner of Insurance incumbent Republican Mike Causey (41.1%) has a 1.4-point lead over Democrat Natasha Marcus (39.7%)
Lastly, in the race for Auditor, Republican challenger Dave Boliek (38.9%) is ahead of sitting Auditor, Democrat Jessica Holmes (38.3%), by .6 points. Libertarian Bob Drach polled at 3.2% support. This race has the most undecided voters, at 19.5%.
Republicans have gained votes in the poll’s generic Congressional race. When asked if they planned on voting for a Republican or a Democrat for Congress, 47.9% of voters said they will vote for the Republican candidate and 44.8% of voters said they will choose the Democratic candidate. This marks a 3.1-point lead, up from 1.6 points last month. However, Republicans’ advantage is shrinking in the generic General Assembly race. Support for Republican candidates is down from 46.7% last month to 46% this month, and support for Democrats came in at 45.6% – up from 45.3% last month.
A citizen-only voting amendment will be on the ballot in November. When polled about this amendment, 75.9% of voters said they would support it. Only 12.7% said they would oppose this constitutional amendment. Almost all Republicans (96%) said they will support this amendment, with a lesser majority of Democrats (56%) in support. Nearly two-thirds of independent voters said they will vote in favor.
When asked the top issues that are guiding their ballot decisions, a plurality of voters said inflation/prices (29.8%), followed by immigration (15.9%), jobs/economy (15.8%), abortion (15.6%), education (6.6%), taxes/spending (6.4%), crime/public safety (2.9%), and energy (2.6%). When asked what the most reliable source of information is for voters, a plurality said debates (25.8%), 17.4% said newspaper/radio/tv news, 16% said candidate rallies and speeches, 9.6% said online news, 6.5% said direct mail and candidate websites, 3% said social media, 2.5% said endorsements, and .1% said campaign ads.
When asked about the truthfulness of campaign ads, approximately two-thirds of voters (65.9%) said they believed these advertisements were untruthful. Only 27.3% believed them to be truthful, and of those people, only 3% said these advertisements were completely truthful. Democrats were more likely to believe campaign ads were truthful, at 38%, than Republicans, at 24%.