August 9, 2024
RALEIGH – The presidential race in North Carolina is tighter than ever, according to the latest poll of likely voters from The Carolina Journal. Former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 3.1 points. This lead is within the margin of error of ±3.99%. Support for Trump is up 4.6 points from the last Carolina Journal Poll in May, now at 47.2%. The percentage of people stating they will vote for Kamala Harris is 6 points higher than when Joe Biden was the presumed Democratic Party nominee, now at 44.1%. Robert Kennedy Jr., however, has lost a significant share of his support – going from 8.8% in May to just 3.6% in August. The combined support for the three other third-party candidates currently appearing on the North Carolina ballot totals just one percent. Very few voters are undecided in this race (4.1%).
Donald Trump is leading in rural areas (59%), while Kamala Harris has majorities in suburban and urban areas (55% and 53%, respectively). Harris has majority support from females in every age group except 50–64-year-olds. Trump is the favorite to win in every age group of men. Self-described “moderates” are more likely to vote for Kamala Harris than Donald Trump (63% v. 27%). When polled about the two most important issues in the election, price/inflation emerged as the top issue (50.2%). In second place was immigration (32.9%). Not far behind, voters said jobs/economy (32.4%), then abortion (23.3%), taxes/spending (18.5%), education (17.4%), energy/environment (10.4%), and lastly public safety/crime (9%).
“Between Joe Biden dropping out of the race and a failed assassination attempt, voters have seen a major shakeup in the presidential race this summer,” said Carolina Journal publisher and John Locke Foundation CEO Donald Bryson. “These events, surprisingly, have not led to more uncertainty in the race. Instead, there are fewer undecided voters in the generic ballot tests for Congress and state legislature, as well as the races for presidency and governorship.”
Despite Republican Donald Trump leading in the presidential race, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein is ahead in the governor’s race. Stein now leads Republican Mark Robinson by 4.4 points – with 42.6% support over Robinson’s 38.2% support. Stein has gained 3.5 points, while Robinson has lost one point in this race. Mark Robinson generally performs better with men than women (46% v. 32%), however, this trend is reversed with black voters. The results suggest Robinson performs worse with black men than black women. While 8% of black women said they will vote for Robinson, only 2% of black men said they will. Approximately 68% of black voters said they intend to vote for Stein. Nearly 15% of voters are still undecided in this race.
When polled on their faith in gubernatorial candidates’ ability to reduce crime, create jobs, and handle K-12 education issues, Stein came out ahead of Robinson in every category. Stein (45.1%) has a slight edge over Robinson (43.2%) in perception of crime reduction. Robinson (42.3%) falls further behind in the public perception for him to create jobs, compared to Stein (45.6%). Where Stein has the greatest lead over Robinson, however, is in trust over K-12 education (5.2 points). Approximately 46.5% of voters trust Stein with K-12 education over Robinson (41.3%).
“The poll indicates that Josh Stein holds an advantage in voter trust over Mark Robinson, on the issues of the economy, education, and crime,” continued Bryson. “That’s very interesting when you consider that this poll shows Republican leads in every other race in the poll, including President, state Supreme Court, and six other Council of State positions.”
Republicans are polling above Democrats in every other Council of State race. The strongest lead is in the State Superintendent’s race. Republican Michele Morrow (41.5%) is ahead of Democrat Maurice “Mo” Green (37%) by 4.5 points. Approximately 21.5% of voters are still undecided in this race. Republican Congressman Dan Bishop (41.7%) has a slightly smaller advantage over his opponent, Democrat Congressman Jeff Jackson (37.8%). Republican Luke Farley (39.5%) has a similar lead in the Labor Commissioner race against Democrat Braxton Winston II (35.8%). However, over a quarter of voters are still undecided in this race.
Within the margin of error are the state Supreme Court, auditor, and lieutenant governor races. Republican Jefferson Griffin polled at 39.9% support, nearly 3 points ahead of sitting Democrat Justice Allison Riggs (37.2%). Republican Hal Weatherman (37.8%) has less than a two-point lead on Democrat Rachel Hunt (35.9%) in the race for lieutenant governor. Libertarian candidate Shannon Bray polled at 4.6%. The closest race is for state auditor, with Republican Dave Boliek (35.5%) ahead of sitting Democrat auditor Jessica Holmes (34.7%). This race has the most undecided voters, at 25.9%
Republicans continue to lead in generic state legislative and congressional races, although that advantage is narrowing. Republican support in the generic General Assembly ballot dropped half a point to 46.7%, while Democrats picked up 2.1 points, bringing them to 45.3% support. “Republican leads also narrowed in the generic congressional ballot, which is now 46.5% (down 1.8 points), while Democrats picked up 2.3 points, bringing them to 44.9%.