Legal experts say that a potential redraw of North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District this year would pose litigation risks.
The issue arose after an anonymous source told the left-wing advocacy group Carolina Forward that state Senate Leader Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, has asked President Donald Trump for his endorsement in a tight primary challenge in his legislative district in exchange for redrawing the lines of the 1st Congressional District.
Berger took to X on Sept. 25 to shoot down the rumor, but he did express openness to redrawing maps if needed, citing efforts by California Gov. Gavin Newsom to redraw districts in his own state to try and tip the balance of power in the United States House.
I’ve been watching what’s going on in California with Gavin Newsom trying to steal the Republican majority in Congress. We have drawn four Congressional maps in the last six years in redistricting fights with Democrats because of their sue-until-blue strategy. If we have to draw… https://t.co/rrw6egaO0O
— Senator Phil Berger (@SenatorBerger) September 25, 2025
Berger — a member of the state Senate since 2000 and Senate leader since 2011 — faces a primary challenge from Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page.
Redrawing the 1st Congressional District would be a significant move, since it’s the only competitive district in the state. Democratic US Rep. Don Davis is the current incumbent — he won the seat for the first time in 2022 by a 52.4% to 47.6% margin over his Republican challenger. But his victory in 2024 was narrower at 49.5% to 47.8%.
“I would expect any new district map to be subject to litigation,” said Jeanette Doran, the I. Beverly Lake, Jr. Chair in Constitutional Studies at the John Locke Foundation. “North Carolina has seen lawsuit after lawsuit over redistricting, and I’d expect more if the General Assembly redraws the maps now. Whether any such lawsuit would have merit remains to be seen.”
Dr. Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation, notes that NC-1 has become less secure for Democrats in recent years.
“The John Locke Foundation analyzed the new congressional districts when the General Assembly passed them in 2023 and found the First District to be D+0, meaning that a Democrat had a less than half-percentage point advantage,” Jackson said. “As rural North Carolina shifts toward Republicans, I expect the district to lean Republican by the end of the decade, even if its borders remain unchanged.”
“Since 2024, the First District has shifted from a 0.4% Democratic advantage to a 0.3% Republican advantage,” Jackson added. “That small shift is probably not enough to overcome Rep. Don Davis’ incumbency advantage, especially in a midterm election, when the president’s party tends to suffer losses.”
A potential challenge in redrawing the lines for NC-1 is that the district has “majority-minority” designation under the federal Voting Rights Act. That means a majority of the district’s voters must be from an ethnic or racial minority.
“One potential problem facing the General Assembly is that the First District is considered one of North Carolina’s two Voting Rights Act-compliant districts,” Jackson noted. “Roughly 40% of the district is black. Any change that significantly drops that number, especially if it also negatively affects the district’s compactness and splits more counties, will make it less likely to survive the inevitable lawsuit.”
He also pointed to a recent US Supreme Court decision from 2023 — Allen v. Milligan — that reinforced the components of the Voting Rights Act.
“That case should give legislators pause before making significant changes to the 1st,” Jackson said.
