In November, North Carolinians will head to the polls to vote in what will likely be the most expensive and competitive Senate race in the country. Republican and former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley faces off against former Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper to replace retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis in Washington.
The road to the US Senate majority runs through North Carolina, one of the nation’s most purple states, and the heat is turning up as Republicans fight to hold the majority and Democrats aim to flip it.
On April 8, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill hosted an NC Senate Race Preview event with the School of Civic Life and Leadership and the Abbey Speaker Series. Two leading NC political strategists, Democratic campaign consultant Morgan Jackson and Republican campaign consultant Jonathan Felts, sat down for a conversation moderated by longtime journalist and PBS CEO David Crabtree.
The conversation centered around one of the key components of the race: the swing voters of North Carolina.
Unaffiliated voters in the state make up more than 38% of the state — more than the percentage of registered Republicans and Democrats, respectively. The party that can win over more unregistered voters is likely to win.
“North Carolina is essentially two separate and distinct states rolled into the same border,” Jackson said. “The way we vote electorally and the demographics that go along with that—we are one part Northern Virginia and one part rural Alabama.”
“Those two states, the Northern Virginia and the rural Alabama, are basically the same electoral strength right now and the same size and voting power,” Jackson said.
The key to finding those unaffiliated voters is time and money. With eight months on the clock until Election Day, both parties are expected to ramp up fundraising and voter targeting efforts.
“You got to spend a lot of time and a lot of money finding these genuinely undecided voters,” Felts said.
Earlier in the week, the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) commissioned the first major cash investment of the 2026 cycle — $71 million to the Whatley campaign and $342 million nationwide to back GOP candidates. As steep as the number is, $71 million is only a drop in the bucket, with experts reporting that the race could cost up to $1 billion.
“Part of the reason the campaigns are so expensive is because we have to spend so much money trying to communicate with people that don’t want to hear from us,” Jackson said.
Ads and ad targeting are a massive part of campaigns, often a blend of positive messaging and negative attacks. During campaign season they pepper the screens and mailboxes of voters. The 2022 NC Senate race saw more than $100 million spent on advertising, a fraction of what will likely be spent on advertising in the 2026 race.
Both Felts and Jackson said to expect attack ads from the campaigns.
“We run them because they work,” Jackson said.
“The people that often make the final decision and push the election one way or the other are folks who keep their head down and don’t watch the news and don’t want to be in politics, but they are going to vote because they are good citizens” Jackson added.
Strategic advertising is a key component of a successful race and a tool leveraged to reach voters who may not eagerly run to the polls.
Both speakers highlighted the importance that the economy will have on swing voters in the state. Taxes, housing, and health care are all issues on voters’ minds as they choose their next senator. As the candidates campaign on contradicting economic policies in the state, Cooper leads Whatley by nearly 8 points according to the March 2026 CJ poll.
The next few months are sure to be packed with advertising, fundraising, and voter outreach.
Felts said that often, it is easier to run a candidate against a party than to defend a party. Change is a motivator for voter turnout, and the nation and the state have both experienced significant amount of change in the last few years.
“But just the way the news works these days, the way that so many difference groups have a large megaphone that can make themselves heard, just things change much more rapidly,” said Felts.
