Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is significantly trailing his challenger, Democrat Attorney General Josh Stein in the race for governor in two new polls.

In the High Point University/SurveyUSA poll released on Aug. 22, Stein had a 14-point lead with 48% of the vote among registered voters, while Robinson received 34%. A significant portion, 18%, said they were undecided.

Voter impressions were also more favorable to Stein, than Robinson, in an Elon University poll released Tuesday.

The survey of registered voters conducted Aug. 2-9 shows about 44% had very or somewhat favorable views of Stein, compared with 30% who had favorable views of Robinson. As far as the negatives, 50% of state voters had unfavorable views of Robinson, while 29% had unfavorable views of Stein.

Among female voters, 46% had a favorable impression of Stein, compared with 23% for Robinson. Among Black voters, 65% had a favorable impression of Stein, compared with 14% for Robinson.

The polls follow a similar track as a recent Carolina Journal poll in which Robinson trailed Stein by 5 points, 43% to Robinson at 38%.

Robinson generally performs better with men than women (46% v. 32%), however, this trend is reversed with black voters. The results suggest Robinson performs worse with black men than black women. While 8% of black women said they would vote for Robinson, only 2% of black men said they would. Approximately 68% of black voters said they intended to vote for Stein. Nearly 15% of voters are still undecided in this race. 

Also, in the CJ poll, Robinson (42.3%) falls further behind in the public perception of his ability to create jobs as governor, compared to Stein (45.6%). Where Stein has the greatest lead over Robinson, however, is in trust over K-12 education (5.2 points). Approximately 46.5% of voters trust Stein with K-12 education, over Robinson at 41.3%. 

When polled on their faith in gubernatorial candidates’ ability to reduce crime, Stein came out ahead of Robinson, with 45.1% over Robinson at 43.2% in the perception of crime reduction.

During Congressman Dan Bishop’s recent crime and safety listening tour, NC Police Benevolent Association (NCPBA) President David Rose stated that despite Stein holding the office of North Carolina’s “top cop” for the past eight years, “You have to ask yourself why not a single law enforcement organization is going to support him in his next endeavor.”

He said for the past 20 years, the cops have not had an engagement with either Stein or former attorney general and current Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, calling it “bizarre and sad” and that it has all been done by design.

So, given that most law enforcement officials across the state feel so strongly about this issue, why does Stein continue to lead polls on this subject and others?

perception is reality

Stein has hammered Robinson in a series of negative attack ads, including a TV ad with allegedly misleading statements and visuals depicting a childcare center that the lieutenant governor and his wife, Yolanda Hill, ran in Greensboro between 2005 and 2007.

Despite a cease-and-desist letter sent by Robinson’s campaign attorneys to Stein and his campaign to stop running the ad, it is pinned to Stein’s X page and is still posted on Stein’s YouTube campaign page, with almost 4,500 views in the four weeks it has been posted.

Robinson called recent attack ads a “weaponization of government” during a speech at the Trump rally in Asheville.

There is a psychology behind a repetitious ad regardless of what it is about and who it is from.

Hearing something repeatedly and believing it is called the illusory truth effect. It can occur when you tell yourself something over and over in your head, from marketing an item that makes you want to buy it right now, to political ads that are repeating across a spectrum of outlets (radio, TV, social media, and now streaming) continuously at all times of the day.

The effect of repetition occurs with both credible and uncredible claims, whether they came from reliable or unreliable sources.

In this case, judging by recent poll results, Stein’s ads may be working.

“Our data shows a clear favorability advantage for Josh Stein over Mark Robinson,” Professor Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll, said. “This is not because Stein seems exceptionally popular – his overall favorability is similar to that of (Vice President Kamala) Harris. Rather, Stein’s 14-point favorability advantage over Robinson comes from Robinson being far less popular than Trump among both Republicans and Independents.”