According to post-election surveys, true swing voters comprise about a fifth of the electorate in both North Carolina and the nation.
Four years ago, we entered the homestretch of the 2020 election cycle with 7.1 million North Carolinians registered to vote, of which 36% were Democrats and 30% Republicans. The remainder were unaffiliated (33%) or in alternative parties. This year, there are 7.6 million North Carolinians registered to vote as of early September. The Democratic share...
Carolina Journal’s first post-primary survey is out. It shows our state’s 2024 general elections will be, as usual, quite competitive. That’s not to say North Carolina’s electorate is perfectly purple. It’s not. All other things being equal, Republicans enjoy a modest edge statewide of a few percentage points. As John Locke Foundation analyst Andy Jackson...
If a jurisdiction is closely divided, ticket-splitting need not be widespread to be decisive. After all, North Carolina went for both Donald Trump and Roy Cooper in 2020.
The two major political parties’ traditional “brand attributes,” as a marketer might call them, appear to be deeply embedded in public perceptions.
If Democrats can retain the allegiance of inner-suburb voters, the GOP will struggle in future elections in North Carolina and other fast-growing states.
GOP candidates running in competitive legislative districts should highlight North Carolina’s economic progress, emphasize pro-growth policies such as tax relief, and talk about the rule of law.
A new poll suggests that if the presidential election of 2016 were restaged in North Carolina, Trump would probably still win the state.
Republican candidates have to win a sizable majority of unaffiliated and mildly Democratic voters to be competitive.
Think of the Democrats and Republicans as competing teams that pool together the varying talents, resources, and energies of players, coaches, support staff, and fans.
From what I’ve seen in public polls and heard about internal campaign polls, there seems to be a bit of a Republican surge in this last week of the 2008 cycle.
