The presidential race is in its closing weeks but a clear leader in North Carolina is still uncertain, as both Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris remain virtually deadlocked in a new Carolina Journal poll of likely voters.

Trump tops Harris 47.2% to 46.6%, well within the poll’s margin of error. Around 4% of the electorate remains undecided. Harris’ performance has ticked up slightly since August when she won 44.1% support compared to Trump’s 47.2%, but Trump’s advantage has widened since September.

The RealClearPolitics average of polls in NC puts Trump ahead 48.8% to Harris’ 47.4%. Other recent polls, however, have given Trump a more comfortable lead: 51% to 46% from Rasmussen and 47% to 45% from the Trafalgar Group.

“The road to the White House continues to run through the Old North State in the 2024 presidential election, with Trump and Harris locked in a statistical tie. But what’s equally interesting is the state’s long-standing pattern of ballot-splitting,” said Carolina Journal publisher and John Locke Foundation CEO Donald Bryson. “North Carolina has split parties on the gubernatorial and presidential tickets in six of the last nine elections.” 

Interestingly, the gender gap in the presidential race narrowed from the September CJ poll, with Trump picking up a higher percentage of support from female voters. In September, Harris’ advantage among female likely voters stood at 47% with 43% for Trump, while in the latest poll Harris commands 48% support compared to Trump’s 46%.

In the governor’s race, Democrat Josh Stein has increased his lead by nearly four percentage points since September, besting Republican Mark Robinson 49.3% to 35.8%. In May, Robinson was up 39% to 34% over Stein, but that advantage has steadily eroded over the months, worsened by a report from CNN accusing Robinson of making racial and sexual comments on adult websites in the early 2000s. (Robinson filed a defamation lawsuit against CNN on Tuesday.)

The margins for other Council of State races are tighter:

  • Lieutenant governor: 43.3% for Democrat Rachel Hunt, 40.8% for Republican Hal Weatherman
  • Attorney general: 46.1% for Democrat Jeff Jackson, 43.4% for Republican Dan Bishop
  • Labor commissioner: 43.5% for Republican Luke Farley, 41.7% for Democrat Braxton Winston
  • State treasurer: 43.4% for Republican Brad Briner, 41.9% for Democrat Wesley Harris
  • Superintendent of public instruction: 45.7% for Democrat Mo Green, 43.2% for Republican Michele Morrow
  • State auditor: 40.4% for Republican Dave Boliek, 40.1% for Democrat Jessica Holmes
  • Insurance commissioner: 44.2% for Republican Mike Causey, 41% for Democrat Natasha Marcus
  • Agriculture commissioner: 45.3% for Republican Steve Troxler, 38.4% for Democrat Sarah Taber
  • Secretary of state: 45.1% for Democrat Elaine Marshall, 42.9% for Republican Chad Brown

In the only race for a state Supreme Court seat this year, Republican Jefferson Griffin narrowly edges out Democrat Allison Riggs 44.7% to 43.3%.

On the generic ballot for state legislative races, if the election were held today, 46.6% of respondents indicated they would vote for a Democrat, compared to 45.8% for a Republican. Meanwhile, for the United States Congress, Republicans hold a slight lead, with 46.9% of North Carolinians expressing support for GOP candidates, while 46.4% favor Democrats.

“While Democrats have taken a slight lead in the generic General Assembly ballot, Republicans still hold a narrow advantage in congressional races. This demonstrates that despite shifts in statewide preferences, North Carolina remains highly competitive at all levels of government,” said Bryson.

The poll also sheds light on the key issues shaping voter priorities in 2024. Inflation and rising prices are the top concern for 32% of respondents, underscoring widespread anxieties about the cost of living. Following this, abortion emerges as the second most important issue at 16%. Jobs and the economy, immigration, and taxes also feature prominently, garnering 15%, 13%, and 9% of voter concern, respectively.

The CJ poll also queried voters on the response to the devastating impacts of Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina. Among the respondents, 38.2% expressed a great deal of confidence in the state’s ability to manage natural disasters, but close to 30% of participants indicated little to no confidence in the state’s emergency preparedness.

The poll further revealed ambivalent opinions about the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), with 46.4% viewing the agency favorably and 48.3% unfavorably. When asked about the responsibility for disaster relief, a significant 62.2% of respondents believe it should be a shared effort between federal and state/local governments. Only 22.7% feel it should predominantly be a federal responsibility, while 11.2% believe it should rest with state and local authorities.