Former President Donald Trump is up three percentage points in North Carolina over his newly minted rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, in a new Carolina Journal poll of likely voters. Trump leads Harris 47% to 44%.

The survey, released Aug. 8, is one of the first looks at the electorate’s take on the Trump-Harris matchup in the Old North State since President Joe Biden announced July 21 that he wouldn’t seek a second term in office and endorsed Harris.

While Trump’s numbers increased overall, from 43% to 47%, those of his Democratic opponent have increased even more since the last CJ poll in May, going from 38% to 44%, an increase of six percentage points.

North Carolina was one of the most competitive states in the 2020 presidential election — Trump won the state by around 74,481 votes out of 5.5 million votes cast, or less than 1.5%. This time around, the Cook Political Report puts North Carolina in the “lean Republican” category along with Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.

A Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll from Aug. 6 also put Trump up by three percentage points in North Carolina, while a Morning Consult poll from July 30 placed Trump’s advantage at two percentage points.

“Between Joe Biden dropping out of the race and a failed assassination attempt, voters have seen a major shakeup in the presidential race this summer,” said Carolina Journal publisher and John Locke Foundation CEO Donald Bryson. “These events, surprisingly, have not led to more uncertainty in the race. Instead, there are fewer undecided voters in the generic ballot tests for Congress and state legislature, as well as the races for presidency and governorship.”

Beyond the presidential race, the new CJ poll had good news for many down-ballot Republicans, with the exception of the gubernatorial race. In that contest, current Democrat Attorney General Josh Stein snagged the lead from Republican Mark Robinson, edging out his opponent 46% to 42%.

In May, Robinson was ahead 39% to 34%, according to a High Point University poll, while the May CJ poll had the race tied at 39%, but with 17% undecided.

Robinson trials Stein on a number of key issues in the campaign, including on the question of who would better handle the economy — 46% Stein, 42% Robinson — who would perform better on reducing crime — 45% Stein, 43% Robinson — and who would better handle K-12 education issues — 45% Stein, 43% Robinson.

On other Council of State races, the GOP candidates are leading across the board:

  • Lieutenant governor: Republican Hal Weatherman is up 38% to 36% over Democrat Rachel Hunt.
  • Attorney General: Republican Dan Bishop leads 42% over Democrat Jeff Jackson at 38%.
  • Labor Commissioner: Republican Luke Farley leads at 40% over Democrat Braxton Winston at 36%.
  • State Treasurer: Republican Brad Briner leads at 40% over Democrat Wesley Harris at 35%.
  • Superintendent of Public Instruction: Republican Michele Morrow leads 42% over Democrat Mo Green at 37%.
  • State Auditor: Republican Dave Boliek leads at 36% over Democrat Jessica Holmes at 35%.

“The poll indicates that Josh Stein holds an advantage in voter trust over Mark Robinson on the issues of the economy, education, and crime,” Bryson said. “That’s very interesting when you consider that this poll shows Republican leads in every other race in the poll, including president, state Supreme Court, and six other Council of State positions.”

In the race for the only seat up for grabs on the NC Supreme Court this year, Republicans are also leading — with Jefferson Griffin leading Allison Riggs 40% to 37%. In strictly partisan matchups, 47% of likely voters said they would pick a Republican for the state legislature or for Congress, while 45% would pick a Democrat.

Asked to pick their top-of-mind issue in this election year, likely voters first picked inflation, followed by immigration, jobs and the economy, abortion, taxes and spending, education, energy and the environment, and crime and public safety.

The poll also queried voters for their opinion on the “cooling-off” period, during which former state lawmakers are barred from working as lobbyists. Only 3% of respondents picked the current law of six months, while 57% said lawmakers should never be allowed to become lobbyists, 16% said 12 months, 2% said three months, and 2% said there should be no limitations.

Voters were also asked about two amendments to the state constitution — the first to limit voting to only US citizens, the second to remove the literacy test for voting from the state constitution. On the citizen-only voting amendment, 80% of respondents favored the idea, with only 10% opposed. Voters were more split on the literacy test, with 40% favoring its elimination and 39% opposed.

The poll surveyed 600 likely general-election voters Aug. 4 – 5 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.99%.