Unaffiliated voters led NC’s early turnout, Republican advantage grows

With early voting closed and Election Day just hours away, North Carolina’s unaffiliated voters cast the most early ballots of any group, up more than 100,000 votes over 2020 turnout.

“The 2024 electorate looks different from 2020 in important ways, all of which appear to benefit Republicans,” said Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation. “The decline in the number of Democrats voting early or absentee, combined with a modest rise in the number of Republicans, is a swing of almost 300,000 voters in the Republicans’ favor. Even if every one of the 109.000 additional unaffiliated voters voted Democratic, that would not nearly be enough to close the gap. The electorate is also older and whiter compared to 2020, and both demographics tend to vote Republican.”

2/6
After a strong final day of early voting, unaffiliated voters submitted the most ballots. Republicans finished ahead of their total compared to 2020 and Democrats ended well behind theirs. #ncpol
D: -268k
R: +30k
U: +109k pic.twitter.com/ane2HmMDHB

— Andy Jackson (@andyinrok) November 3, 2024

According to data presented on carolinaelections.com, women outpaced men in early voting, and there was a 3.8% increase in turnout among voters ages 65+. Turnout among voters age 18-35 dropped 1.1% from 2020.

For those voters who requested and received a mail-in absentee ballot but did not return it, they can still destroy the absentee ballot and vote in person on Election Day.

“Of course, we are still missing a big piece of the puzzle: Election Day voters,” said Jackson. “We will probably see over a million voters come out on Election Day. If Republicans continue their traditional dominance of Election Day voting, they will be in a position to sweep most statewide races on election night. Of course, that is a big ‘if.’ We have seen rapid shifts in partisan voting patterns over the past few elections.”

the betting odds for President

The betting odds for the 2024 US presidential election show a tight race with Donald Trump currently favored slightly over Kamala Harris. These odds indicate that Trump is seen as having a better-than-even chance of winning, with Realclearpolling.com offering an average odds advantage for Trump at 53.6% to Harris’ 45.1%. The same sites give Trump an average 1.5% edge over Harris in winning North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes.

North Carolina is key to a winning formula for Trump. His path to victory would run through the Tar Heel State and would also include Georgia and Arizona, where he is favored. However, Trump would need to win at least one “blue wall” state like Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. NewsNation’s Decision Desk HQ gives Trump a 53% chance of victory in Pennsylvania as of Nov. 1.

Harris’ path to the White House must include winning all three “blue wall” states. The three went for Trump in 2016 but supported Joe Biden in 2020. Harris is favored in Michigan but trails slightly in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

“For Trump, just winning Georgia and North Carolina gives him a lot of different options for how he can win the presidency,” said Zachary Donnini, a data scientist at The Hill’s Decision Desk HQ.

North Carolina’s entire Council of State, all 170 seats in the state legislature, and 14 US House seats are all on the ballot Tuesday. North Carolina’s Congressional District 1 contest between incumbent Democrat Don Davis and Republican challenger Laurie Buckout is one of the most closely watched races in the country, as it could play a pivotal role in the party balance of power in Congress.

Polls will open Tuesday from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. Any voter in line at their assigned polling place at 7:30 p.m. will be able to vote. Registered voters can find their polling place and sample ballot at NCSBE.gov. 

Carolina Journal will be live on YouTube on election night with returns and analysis from 7 p.m. to 11 p.m.