Early independent spending combined with significant home county support has NC House Speaker Tim Moore surging into a commanding position in Congressional District 14, a newly configured district that heavily favors the GOP in the General Election in 2024.

A new survey conducted for the GOPAC Education Fund by Differentiators Data shows North Carolina State House Speaker Tim Moore with a significant lead in North Carolina’s 14th Congressional District Republican primary.

Moore, an active leader in GOPAC’s mission during his decade-long tenure as state House speaker, holds a 43-percentage point lead over his nearest competitor.

Moore is supported by half of all voters with 49%. The two other Republicans in the race, Jeff Gregory (6%) and Lillian Joseph (2%), are virtual unknowns to voters. Moore avoided what would have been his strongest primary challenge when Republican Pat Harrigan, a businessman and former Green Beret, filed to run for Rep. Patrick McHenry’s seat, after the former speaker pro tempore announced he’ll retire at the end of this term. Harrigan won the primary for the 14th Congressional District in 2022, so would have had high name ID and some momentum with primary voters.

The survey shows Moore with strong name identification and approval ratings in all of the counties in the district, with a 73%-17% favorability rating (+56%) in his home of Cleveland County.

The GOPAC network has spent significant early resources on behalf of Moore’s candidacy. GOPAC Chairman David Avella says this survey shows the early investment is paying dividends.

“GOPAC remains steadfast in its commitment to electing to Congress more state leaders who have been involved with our mission,” Avella said. “They know how to govern. They know how to collaborate. They are workhorses not show horses. This is why our Mission Majority program is dedicated to winning competitive primary elections with thoughtful, pragmatic conservatives. We have invested well over $175,000 in advertisements to date and will continue to work to make sure he maintains his lead in this primary.”

Veteran North Carolina GOP consultants Jim Blaine and Ray Martin (Differentiators Data) conducted a survey of 400 likely GOP primary voters in North Carolina’s 14th Congressional District on Dec. 17 through 19 for the GOPAC Education Fund.

The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.9% and included 1/3 live landline, 1/3 live cell phones, and 1/3 text to web responses.

Under the newly redrawn congressional maps, the 14th district covers all of Gaston, Cleveland, Burke and Rutherford counties and parts of Mecklenburg and Polk counties, including Moore’s hometown of Kings Mountain.

Congressman Jeff Jackson, the Democratic incumbent, is not seeking reelection in the 14th, which was redrawn from a deep blue to a ruby red district. Jackson instead is running for state attorney general. Republicans Jeff Gregory and Lillian Joseph will face Moore on the March 5 primary ballot.

Pamela Genant and Brendan Maginnis meet in the Democratic primary to see who advances to the general election in this safe GOP seat.

In other high-profile primary races, the survey found Donald Trump and Mark Robinson with large leads in the presidential and gubernatorial contests in the 14th Congressional District.

Republicans likely will gain at minimum three congressional seats in 2024 in NC, including the 14th, the Greensboro-area 6th Congressional District and the Triangle-based 13th Congressional District. Republicans also hope to capture northeastern North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, the only congressional race considered a toss-up.