If a Republican wave is indeed about to hit North Carolina — and the nation — where will the signs become clear? Carolina Journal has selected a number of contested state and federal legislative races that should be strong indicators of both the size and intensity of any GOP sweep.
N.C. Senate
Polling suggests these six races are the most likely path for Republicans to gain control of the Senate. The GOP needs a net gain of six seats. Democrats are listed first, then Republicans.
Of these six races, three (the 8th, 9th, and 43rd) are gimmes for Republicans. If they manage to capture the other three, they’ll have a 26-24 majority in the Senate next year.
Here are a number of second tier Senate races to keep an eye on as the evening progresses.
A handful of Senate races are in the “far fetched” category, but not beyond the realm of possibility. These include the 1st, 25th, and 28th.
N.C. House
Republicans need a net gain of nine seats to win a majority in the House. If they win these seven races, they’ll be well on their way.
House 3 (Underhill-Sobel-Sanderson)
If Republicans win two of these second tier races, they’ll have a majority in the House.
U.S. House of Representatives
Three months ago, it was difficult to imagine Republicans taking the 39 net seats they need to recapture the House without knocking off at least one Democratic incumbent in North Carolina. Now, most prognosticators have set the floor for GOP gains at 50 seats, even if no Democratic incumbent loses here.
Results in the Tar Heel State, then, may signal how large the national Republican wave may be. The four races considered most competitive share one characteristic: A Democratic incumbent facing a Republican who’s never held elective office.
• 8th District. This seat, now held by Larry Kissell, was targeted by Republicans last year.
Kissell had to fend off the threat of a union-backed challenger from his left, and even though the Republican primary was nasty, the GOP has coalesced around former Charlotte sportscaster Harold Johnson. An Oct. 6 Civitas poll gave Kissell a 46-45 lead, while University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato gives Johnson a slight edge.
• 7th District. Mike McIntyre, seeking his eighth term, has spent his entire campaign trying to convince constituents he’s not a Democrat. Challenger and Iraq war veteran Ilario Pantano also faced a tough primary, with the losers calling on Pantano to step down, claiming he couldn’t beat McIntyre. The Election Projection website predicts a McIntyre win by less than 1 percentage point.
• 11th District. Two-term incumbent Heath Shuler has hinted he may challenge Speaker Nancy Pelosi if he wins and Democrats hold the House. A more interesting question is whether Shuler will vie for a leadership post in the more likely scenario: Republicans control the House. Hendersonville businessman Jeff Miller received a host of endorsements from GOP insiders and the Tea Party movement, but is considered a long shot to beat Shuler.
• 2nd District. Perhaps the most intriguing race involves seven-term incumbent Bob Etheridge, star of “the most embarrassing political video of June 2010.” Etheridge should be a shoo-in versus Renee Ellmers, a nurse and medical clinic director, and Libertarian Bob Rose; Democrats lead Republicans in voter registration 51 percent to 28 percent, and Etheridge won his last two general election contests with at least 65 percent of the vote.
And yet, Etheridge’s “who are you?” video triggered something. A late October Civitas poll shockingly showed Ellmers with a 5-point lead; then again, Ellmers was winning unaffiliated voters, 52-19, so if Republicans and unaffiliateds are more motivated to vote than Democrats, we may have a stunner in the making.
Carolina Journal also will keep tabs on the 14 local sales-tax initiatives across North Carolina, the state judicial races, and some key governors’ contests and congressional elections from around the country.
Be sure to visit The Locker Room regularly for up-to-the-minute election results tonight.
David N. Bass is an associate editor of Carolina Journal. Rick Henderson is managing editor of Carolina Journal.
[Editor’s note: CJ has learned that the North Carolina Association of County Commissions just reported 14 sales-tax initiatives will be on the ballot.]