The rapid rise in fuel prices has greatly increased costs for the airline industry, forcing fare increases and cuts in service. While airlines are hurting in general, it doesn’t follow that across-the-board cuts in flight are likely. Rather, certain types of routes and markets are more in danger of being eliminated than others.
One aircraft type in particular that has experienced large cuts is the so-called “regional jet.” When first introduced in the 1990s, regional jets revolutionized air travel. The aircraft, seating 37 to 50 passengers, had adequate range and speed for flights out to about 1,000 miles. The jets were widely used to replace turboprops on short feeder routes to hubs, and to right-size capacity on routes that had previously been operated by larger planes.
In addition, regional jets allowed airlines to serve a new class of markets from their hubs. The markets were too distant for turboprops but too small to efficiently serve with aircraft seating 100 or more.
Another popular use for regional jets was to offer nonstop flights between medium-sized cities. Such routes are referred to as “point-to-point” service, as they do not involve a hub.
While regional jets offer airlines many advantages, they also have a decided downside: Their cost per average seat-mile, a standard industry measure of cost, is higher than larger jet aircraft or turboprops. A large element of this comes from their per seat-mile fuel consumption being higher than other aircraft types.
Unsurprisingly, airlines are responding to the recent spike in fuel prices by sharply reducing regional jet flying, especially on point-to-point routes.
Raleigh-Durham International Airport, particularly, has been affected. The airport has lost or is scheduled to lose 30 flights this year. That amounts to 13 percent of the flights it began the year with. Most of the cuts involve regional jets. Nonstop destinations dropped include Kansas City; Jacksonville, Fla.; Louisville, Ky; and Austin, Texas.
Both American Airlines and Delta Air Lines will soon end service on regional jets between Charlotte and New York City’s LaGuardia Airport. Piedmont Triad International Airport, meanwhile, has lost all service to Boston as Delta trims regional jet flying and flights to Continental’s hub in Cleveland.
The effects, however, extend beyond regional jet operations. “Hub reach will constrict materially,” wrote aviation consultant Mike Boyd recently on his company’s web site. “The farther an airline has to toss an airplane to feed its hub, the more financially-dicey it becomes.”
Several long routes from North Carolina have been on the cutting block. United has announced it’s eliminating its daily RDU-Denver flight and one of its two Charlotte-Denver flights. Delta has ended its RDU-Los Angeles flight, while its single daily flight from Charlotte to its Salt Lake City hub will end in September.
Tourism-based travel, especially, will be affected, Boyd said. “Over the past 30 years, the increasing availability of cheap air travel has resulted in enormous growth in leisure markets. But write this down: Big adjustments are going to be necessary, as any industry that depends on air transportation to deliver high percentages of its customer and revenue streams will need to re-think its business strategy.”
Permanent reductions
Boyd also views these recently announced flight reductions as not being temporary. “…The air transportation system is permanently constricting,” he wrote. “The airliners out there simply don’t have the economics to continue to operate as wide a system as in the past.”
More fuel-efficient airliners, which would again increase the number of viable market pairs, are still some ways off. While families can easily reduce their gasoline consumption by buying smaller cars that get better fuel mileage, things aren’t as simple for airlines. In aircraft, bigger is typically more efficient on a per seat-mile basis.
Two manufacturers, Airbus and Boeing, essentially control all of the market for planes seating more than 100 passengers. While they are constantly working to make the planes they now build more efficient, both envision the next generation of single-aisle jets seating 100 to 200 passengers to be about a decade off. The technologies won’t exist before then to build planes that are substantially more efficient than what the companies are currently building. Developing more efficient engines is a particular constraint.
Even should a better 150-seat airliner be available in about 10 years, major U.S. air carriers operate literally hundreds of planes in this class. Replacing their entire existing fleets with such more modern aircraft could take until 2030 or longer.
Michael Lowrey is an associate editor of Carolina Journal.