With the General Election six weeks away and early voting in North Carolina starting Oct. 14, the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling released data recently showing that Tar Heel voters favor Republicans over Democrats by a 49-41 margin in a generic legislative ballot. Independents plan to vote Republican by a spread of 52-19.
House District 93, comprising Ashe and Watauga counties, is among the top 10 most competitive seats in this year’s midterm elections, according to the North Carolina Free Enterprise Foundation, a Raleigh-based nonpartisan research and education organization. Rep. Cullie Tarleton, D-Watauga, a retired broadcaster who upset long-time Republican Rep. Gene Wilson in 2006 and narrowly won re-election in 2008, is being challenged by attorney Jonathan Jordan from Ashe County.
While the latest voter registration statistics from the State Board of Elections show Republicans with a slight advantage over Democrats in the district, nearly 28 percent of voters are unaffiliated, placing it in swing territory.
In many western counties where the loss of manufacturing jobs has made unemployment persistently high, the “sense of insecurity among voters may bode well for Republicans,” said Gibbs Knotts, a political science professor at Western Carolina University.
The latest figures from the State Employment Security Commission show Watauga’s unemployment rate at 7.4 percent, Ashe County’s at 10.9 percent, and the state’s at 9.7 percent. Since the recession began in 2007, government jobs in North Carolina have seen the largest seasonally adjusted employment gains (1.9 percent).
Despite state budget shortfalls, government jobs in North Carolina grew 4 percent since August 2009. According to the ESC, the three largest employers in Watauga County are Appalachian State University (more than 1,000 employees), followed by Appalachian Regional Health Care (more than 1,000 employees) and Watauga County Board of Education (500-999 employees).
In phone interviews with Carolina Journal, Tarleton and Jordan agreed that jobs and the economy are the top two issues for voters in Ashe and Watauga, but they differed widely in how they’d tackle those priorities.
Tarleton said that the “business of government should run like a business, and I believe we’ve done that.” With the state expected to face another $3 billion budget shortfall next year, Jordan disagrees, arguing that the “state’s budget priorities are out of balance” and saying he would examine the scope of government and bring “common sense back to the General Assembly.”
Rather than “ballooning the deficit, then raising taxes, using federal stimulus dollars, or using other one-time revenue sources to balance the budget,” Jordan believes the state should fund only recurring state budget expenditures with existing, recurring revenues.
Tarleton says sometimes it’s necessary to rely on one-time sources of funding. “Anyone who questions whether more cuts were needed in education last year should go ask the State Department of Public Instruction about administrative cuts,” Tarleton said, “or ask the UNC Board of Governors.”
Jordan opposes expanding the state’s sales tax to services, but Tarleton would consider spreading the base. “It would have to be fair,” Tarleton said.
Tarleton says he’s a strong pro-business candidate and believes the best incentive for economic development is to decrease taxes and some regulatory burdens, yet his voting record is mixed.
For example, he voted for a bill establishing the Uwharrie Regional Resources Commission, allowing the state of North Carolina to purse a takeover of the ownership and operation of four private hydroelectric dams owned by Alcoa in central North Carolina. He voted for House Bill 813, legislation that would adopt a comparative fault system for personal injury, property loss, and other cases, meaning businesses would face increased liability in lawsuits and pay more for liability insurance.
Tarleton has voted for and continues to support using direct incentives such as targeted tax breaks to entice large companies to North Carolina, a policy Jordan opposes.
“Tennessee and Virginia often win out over North Carolina because those states have a more favorable tax climate for businesses,” Jordan said, adding that economic development should focus on lowering corporate tax rates and reducing the regulatory burden on businesses rather than using incentives.
Jordan supports lifting the cap on charter schools to provide parents with greater choice. Tarleton voted to raise the cap from 100 to 106, but the bill didn’t pass.
Jordan believes the Tea Party will support him because he shares their values of limited government and greater fiscal responsibility.
Democratic lawmakers are criticized as tax-and-spend, Tarleton says, but Republicans offer little in what they’d do differently.
Rep. Paul Stam, R-Wake, the House minority leader, says Republicans have offered amendments to tax and spending bill, but House and Senate rules are structured to disadvantage the minority party.
“The Appropriations Conference Committee has 65 Democrats and 7 Republicans but the rules make it where just 8 Democrats end up making the decisions,” Stam said.
Jordan says he’d work to change those rules should he be elected.
Karen McMahan is a contributor to Carolina Journal.