Civitas Institute, a conservative public policy organization, released a poll Monday, Oct. 15, showing a tight race in North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District.

SurveyUSA surveyed 533 likely voters between Oct. 9 to Oct. 12, using a blended sample and mixed-mode method. The margin of error is 5.2 percent.

The poll shows one-term Republican incumbent Ted Budd slightly ahead of Democratic opponent Kathy Manning. Forty-four percent of respondents said they would vote for Budd in the upcoming election, 41 percent said they would choose Manning.

The Libertarian candidate, Tom Bailey, and the Green Party candidate, Robert Corriher, each received 1 percent support. Thirteen percent are undecided.

“Democrats pegged this district early on as vulnerable because Congressman Budd is a freshman and freshmen members have lower name recognition in their districts,” Civitas Institute President Donald Bryson said in a news release. “However, this district is in the conservative heartland of North Carolina, and despite a well-funded campaign on the part of Kathy Manning, Congressman Budd remains in the lead.”

A July Civitas poll had Budd leading Manning by five points.

President Trump won the 13th District by a nine-point margin in 2016. Bryson said it’s difficult to determine how much influence Trump has on this race.

“The president is not having a dampening effect on Congressman Budd’s campaign, but it’s unclear if he provides a significant boost,” Bryson said.

The poll shows approval of Trump’s job performance at 48 percent, with 46 percent disapproving. A little more than 50 percent of respondents think the economy is getting stronger, compared to 18 percent who think it’s getting weaker. Twenty-six percent said the economy is staying about the same.

The economy and health care topped voter priorities heading into November. Twenty-two percent of respondents said jobs and the economy are important to them, just as 22 percent said health care was a top priority. Eighteen percent said the presidency was the main issue influencing their vote.