The news that Rep. Richard Burr, with the White House’s active encouragement, is seriously considering a run for U.S. Senate in 2004 is already reverberating through North Carolina politics.

Burr was first elected to his congressional seat in 1994, in a district that encompasses Winston-Salem and a good swath of the Piedmont Triad and northwest mountains of North Carolina. He is one of the stars of the delegation. He already has millions in his campaign war chest. And he has the rhetorical and political skills to give Sen. John Edwards a major run for his (very much) money.

Edwards, despite his rep in D.C., has never established a solid political base in his home state. I am sure that he doesn’t see a run against Burr in two years as a safe reelection scenario. Indeed, I look at the Burr story as one of several factors likely to push Edwards into throwing his full attention and effort into a presidential run.

Let’s face it. No matter how much some North Carolina conservatives and Republicans have denied it, Edwards is a viable candidate for the presidency, though certainly not close to being a frontrunner. His vague political ideology could end up contrasting well with John Kerry’s “macho from Massachusetts” liberalism, Al Gore’sunabashedly loony leftism, Tom Dashcle’s “run against Rush” paranoia, and Richard Gephardt’s old-school unionism.

Joe Lieberman is a problem for Edwards, of course, but many party insiders will see a wealthy Southerner as more elected than a Connecticut Democrat who bounces back and forth from moderate to liberal. Remember that in states with open primaries in 2004, few independents will choose to vote in the Republican primary, given the likelihood of a Bush return. So they might well ask for a Democratic ballot, and lean towards whom they perceive to be the most moderate.

Even assuming Edwards is truly looking to get on the national ticket as VP, a solid presidential run is probably mandatory. That means, I think, bailing out of the Senate race, something that the potential for a Burr candidacy makes more attractive.

Several implications follow:

• We could see a rematch of Erskine Bowles and Dan Blue in the 2004 senatorial primary. Elaine Marshall did too badly in 2002 to reprise her candidacy. Others Dems are likely to get in, too, such as State Treasurer Richard Moore.

• Burr would have the GOP nomination if he wanted it, I think.

• The line to file for the Republican nomination in Burr’s 5th District would stretch about as far as the district does. Every Republican who ever dreamed of making it to Washington would jump at the chance of an open seat in a safe GOP territory.

• Burr running for Senate would mean more room in the GOP gubernatorial primary. Former nominees Richard Vinroot and Robin Hayes are both reportedly planning out strategy for a possible run. I hear that state GOP chairman Bill Cobey – a former congressman, state cabinet secretary, local government manager, and UNC athletic director – might also get in the race. Others are possible, too.

You see, you think that the election season is over, and then it pops right back up.