RALEIGH – Neither demographics nor redistricting is destiny in politics.
North Carolina Republicans, cautiously optimistic that the latest version of House and Senate maps will withstand some last-minute legal maneuvering by the Democrats, are aware of their historic opportunity to achieve success in legislative elections this year.
Despite the ignorant rantings of some, the maps drawn by Superior Court Judge Knox Jenkins aren’t “favorable to Republicans.” They are simply competitive. It is entirely possible that Democrats will retain control of both chambers in November, aided by traditional advantages in fundraising and voter registration and by the tendency for independents to swing away from the president’s party in off-year elections.
But the GOP does has a fighting chance in both the House and the Senate – provided it can close the fundraising gap and recruit a strong field of candidates. So far, the party is making progress in the latter goal. In recent weeks, a series of announcements to file has identified a surprisingly experienced list of GOP candidates. In at least three cases of which I am aware – districts comprising the counties of Henderson, Craven, and Yancey – the sitting chairman of the county commission has announced his candidacy.
Other rumored Senate candidates include current and former mayors (including Bill McDonald in Hickory and possibly Paul Coble in Raleigh), experienced local or state lawmakers (including Johnston Commissioner Fred Smith, N.C. Rep. Gregg Thompson, and possibly former Iredell Commissioner David Boone), prominent business leaders (such as Robert Pittenger in Sen. Fountain Odom’s new Mecklenburg district) and a former county manager (Richard Stevens in Wake County).
Several key districts have yet to attract major Republican talent, though, and Senate GOP leader Patrick Ballentine is reportedly not succeeding in his goal of convincing some moderate Democratic officeholders to jump ship. Still, party leaders must be thinking: so far, so good.