The pitched battle for control of the North Carolina Senate is perfectly encapsulated in a Wake County race in District 16 between incumbent Democrat Eric Reeves and former Raleigh Mayor Paul Coble, the Republican candidate.

Reeves, a former Raleigh city council colleague of Coble’s, is far better financed, spending several times the amount that the Republican campaign can manage. Coble, on the other hand, is better-known in the district, which was substantially redrawn earlier this year to give Reeves a lot of new territory in Cary and elsewhere.

Reeves is, basically, a doctrinaire liberal who defends the legislature’s tax and spending decisions over the past two years (he is not necessarily a crony of the current Senate leadership, however) and then tries to change the subject to more parochial concerns. Coble is a doctrinaire conservative whose main issue against Reeves is the last two years of tax increases exceeding $1 billion. He has stuck to his message religiously, citing examples of wasteful spending on goat and grass research.

If Reeves wins, it will be because of a strong turnout among Democratic base voters, including unionized teachers, government employees, university faculty and students, and minorities. It will also be because Reeves had access to vastly more financial resources, both personally and from the state and even national party, and used it to blunt the tax message and guide voters to other issues.

If Coble wins, it will be because he was able to take advantage of stronger name recognition from his mayoral days, his superior skill on television, and a favorable climate of issues to compensate for his financial disadvantages. It will also because of strong turnout among Republican base voters such as fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, and 2nd Amendment supporters.

No one really knows what will happen tomorrow, but the conventional wisdom in Raleigh suggests that the Democrats’ financial advantages are going to swamp the GOP’s strengths and preserve the N.C. Senate as a Democratic chamber, albeit by only a slim margin. I’m not convinced. Take this with the appropriate provisos, but I think that Republicans still have a reasonable chance of winning control of the N.C. Senate, or at least to tie it at 25-25.

Here are some key races to watch:

• District 2: Incumbent Democrat Scott Thomas is defending his competitive, New Bern-area seat against Craven County Commissioner Chuck Tyson. As I said last week about the competitive House seat in this region, I think that the trend favors the GOP.

• District 5: This is an open seat in Pitt and Wilson counties. While it is moderately Democratic, I don think that Democratic nominee Tony Moore is destined to win against Republican Tom Coulson. Not counting on it, but I think an upset is possible.

• District 6: This Onslow County swing seat is hosting a tough campaign between former legislator Tommy Pollard, the Republican, and self-identified “conservative Democrat” Cecil Hargett. Again, I see a good chance for the GOP here, but not if black turnout is high.

• District 7: By the numbers, this Wayne-centered district should be safely Democrat. So why am I hearing that incumbent Democrat John Kerr is running surprisingly close to Republican Rep. Carolyn Russell? Disaffection among state employees, Russell’s longtime incumbency as a House member, and a bit of the Dole glow could explain it. The odds are still in Kerr’s favor, though.

• District 9: Senate Minority Leader Patrick Ballentine is defending a moderately Republican seat in New Hanover against Democratic challenger Laura Padgett, a Wilmington city council member. The Dems have made Ballentine work for this, but I predict he will prevail in the end.

• District 12: Incumbent Democrat Allen Wellons is defending this mostly Johnston district, which was redrawn as a moderately Republican seat, against Johnston County Commission Fred Smith. I’d be shocked if Smith didn’t win, though both sides have spent big dollars in the race and are taking nothing for granted.

• District 22: This Moore, Lee, and Harnett district is open but is moderately Republican. The only chance that former Democratic legislator Jimmy Love of Sanford has is if the famous GOP factional divide in Moore hurts the party nominee, Harris Blake.

• District 24: Republican incumbent Hugh Webster is defending this competitive, Alamance and Caswell seat against Democrat Bill Powell. While the latter has run a savvy campaign, I think Webster will prevail in a region with lots of crossover voters.

• District 27: Many political observers don’t see a chance for former Republican Sen. Mark McDaniel to defeat incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan in this Guilford district, but I think it is potentially competitive. McDaniel has put a lot of effort and money into this. Here’s my most controversial pick: Hagan gets upset.

• District 40: Sen. Fountain Odom is the Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbent in this Mecklenburg County race against businessman Robert Pittenger. It’s a safe Republican seat. An Odom win – and he is working hard and spending other people’s money like crazy – would be devastating to the GOP.

• District 43: Incumbent Democrat David Hoyle is also defending his GOP-leaning seat against a strong Republican, Rep. Michael Harrington. But unlike Odom, Hoyle is a moderate with a proven record of attracting Republican cross-overs. Still, I’m going to pick Harrington in a squeaker. If not, the Dems retain the Senate majority.

• District 46: In this moderately Democratic district in Cleveland and Rutherford, Democratic incumbent Walter Dalton holds the high ground against Republican Rep. John Weatherly. Dalton loses only if there is a GOP surge, perhaps driven by better-than-expected turnout for Dole.

• District 47: This mountain district along the Tennessee border is moderately Republican, but nominee Gregg Thompson, an outgoing member of the House, is not trusted by all the Republican leaders in the area. He’s drawn a strong Democratic challenger in Joe Sam Queen and the attention of Democratic donors with deep-pockets. Believe it or not, there are also allegations of voter fraud in Madison County – one of the great traditions of Democratic mountain politics.

• District 49: Incumbent Democrat Steve Metcalf has some vulnerabilities in this competitive, Buncombe County district, including allegations of a conflict-of-interest in his job at Western Carolina University. But is Republican nominee and former Sen. R.L. Clark too conservative for this swing seat? We’ll see – but I’m not counting on a Clark win in my numbers.

Assuming that Tyson, Pollard, and Harrington win their tough races, my scenario would give the Republicans a slim 26-24 majority in the Senate. If either Coble or McDaniel wins, or both, the majority increases.

Tuesday: Previewing the U.S. Senate race.