RALEIGH – You’ve heard the ads, I suspect. “Don’t let those telltale signs of foundation failure – cracks, wall separation, misaligned doors, etc. – undermine the value of your home! Hire ACME Foundation Repair today!”
For North Carolina Democrats, the foundation of their longtime dominance of state politics began to show signs of age and structural deficiency a while ago. Strong showings by Republican presidential candidates in 1972 and 1984 helped GOP candidates for governor and state legislature overcome their inherent electoral disadvantages and prevail. Despite Democrats’ best defensive efforts, the reapportionment and redistricting cycles of 1980-81, 1990-91, and 2000-01 were followed by increases in Republican strength as state gerrymanders were eroded by federal law or the enforcement of state constitutional provisions in state courts. The 1994 election verged on the seismic, with surprising GOP gains in Congress, the state legislature, and many county commissions.
As any good property owner would do, Democrats have not ignored signs of foundation failure. They have sought to shore up their position in a variety of ways, some quite effective. Key structural fixes have included enactment of campaign-finance reforms and nonpartisan judicial offices. Stylistically, many Democrats have successfully cultivated a political persona of centrism while distancing themselves from their left-leaning national leaders.
The latest politician to run such a campaign is Gov. Mike Easley. Enjoying a significant lead in the polls a week before Election Day, Easley – never much of a party man – suddenly became the Democrats’ favorite Mr. Fix-It. He was asked to cut commercials for several other Democratic candidates. Some Democrats facing tough challenges who used to grumble about the governor’s leadership style are now loudly praising him. Easley’s popularity will, it is hoped, offset President Bush’s in North Carolina.
It is well known that one of the governor’s favorite pastimes is woodworking. Essentially, he is now being asked to expand his tactile talents to include brick masonry, concrete repair, and haberdashery (in the sense of putting a huge hem in Bush’s coattails).
Down the ballot, one worry for Democrats is that Republicans may expand their foothold on the Council of State. In 2000, former NC Rep. Cherie Berry was the only Republican elected to a statewide executive office, that of Labor Commissioner. This year she faces a spirited challenge from Wayne Goodwin, also seeking to move up from the NC House. It’s not the only competitive race, however. Some Dems are concerned that the Meg Scott Phipps scandal may boost the Republican she defeated (by cheating) in 2000, Steve Troxler, in his 2004 bid against the Democrat appointed to fill the vacancy, Britt Cobb, even though the latter had nothing to do with Phipps’ crimes. Another trouble spot is said to be at state auditor, where two-term incumbent Ralph Campbell faces a rematch against his 2000 Republican adversary, Les Merritt.
Recent JLF polling confirms that these two offices might be GOP opportunities. While Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper polled at 48 percent in his match-up with Republican Joe Knott, Campbell was only at 38 percent and Cobb at 35 percent. Arguably this was actually worse news for Campbell, since he’s been on statewide ballots several times now while Cobb is an unelected neophyte. Further down the ballot, there are several key House and Senate districts, and even some local races, where Democratic candidates might be in trouble if there is a late Bush surge.
Which brings us back to Easley, trowel in hand. It is his job to fix the cracks before they develop into something more serious. We’ll see if everything dries by Tuesday.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.