RALEIGH — Longtime readers of Carolina Journal know that I’m no fan of Sen. John Edwards. After campaigning in 1998 as a vaguely moderate New Democrat, he has turned out to be a reliable vote against pro-growth fiscal policies, for increased regulation, for government growth, and against rational, market-based reforms of entitlement programs.
Other than his welcome hawkishness on Afghanistan and Iraq, Edwards has done little during his term to impress me. Still, I can’t help but defend his candidacy for president a bit from those who seek, rashly and unfairly, to dismiss it.
A story in Thusday’s Greensboro News & Record points that that after months of campaign, the senator enjoys virtually no name recognition in Iowa, New Hampshire, or even his home state of South Carolina. If this was found to be true after some period of serious campaigning, including advertising and direct mailings, it would be devastating, indeed. But that’s not the situation. None of the candidates has gone into full campaign mode yet, even in the early caucus and primary states, and only former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has bought in significant television (in Iowa). There’s no point checking on the position of the racers when their cars are still getting last-minute, pre-race tune-ups in the garage.
Moreover, the 2004 primary season for the Democrats isn’t yet set in stone. As you can see, the Iowa and New Hampshire contests are now bracketed by a caucus in the District of Columbia just before Iowa’s and as many as six events on Feb. 3 — just days after the New Hampshire primary. These includes two states in the Southwest (Arizona and New Mexico), two in Middle American (Missouri and Oklahoma), and two on the East coast (Delaware to the north and South Carolina to the, well, south). Over the next week, candidates will compete in three more contests: Michigan, Virginia, and Tennessee.
This situation is chaotic. There are multiple ways for candidates with sufficient funding to break from the pack. With Dick Gerphardt expected to win next-door Iowa and John Kerry to win next-door New Hampshire, those outcomes are already heavily discounted by the political “market.” The real race in each is for second and third place, where Joe Lieberman, Howard Dean, and John Edwards need to get some attention.
Lieberman, as I have previously argued, is not liberal enough in my opinion to get the nomination. Plenty of Democrats agree with me, and may well be shopping for a better long-term buy. Dean is certainly running to the left to tickle the fancy of angry Dems, but surely serious party leaders and activists don’t think he can really lead their team to victory.
Will Kerry sell outside of New England? Will Dick Gerphardt sell outside of a union hall? Will Joe Lieberman sell outside of Democrats for Bush rallies? And will Howard Dean sell out his new ice-cream flavor at Ben and Jerry’s?
No can knows for sure. That’s why some are still talking up Hillary Clinton. That’s why John Edwards hasn’t given up and defaulted to a Senate re-election bid. His folks probably recognize at least the possibility that a solid showing in Southern and Midwestern states, even as part of a losing effort, would position Edwards well for the Vice Presidential slot.
So let’s lay off the cheap shots on the senator’s political prospects. Critics will have plenty of time to get their licks in if and when he declares his intentions and starts running seriously for either Senate or the presidential ticket. There’s no point in jumping the gun — and no certainty about how Edwards, underestimated in the past, will fare over the next few months.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.