RALEIGH – With the big electoral match-ups now set for November – the Macs (McCain and McCrory) against the Firsts (Obama and Perdue) – and the 2008 session of the North Carolina General Assembly now underway, it’s a good idea to focus some attention on legislative politics.

Last Tuesday, North Carolina voters turned out four incumbent lawmakers. That’s not very many, actually. It’s fewer incumbents than lost in 2006 and other recent election cycles. Furthermore, the 2008 losses didn’t exhibit a clear pattern. Joe Boylan crashed his own campaign, via car, in House 52. He’ll be replaced by another conservative Republican. Mary McAllister’s questionable campaign finances earned her a penalty from the state board of elections and from the voters of House 43. She’ll be replaced by another liberal Democrat. Nick Mackey defeated Drew Saunders in House 99 because of the former’s notoriety (earned notoriously) and the fact that statewide Democrats put money into turning out the black vote in Mecklenburg County. Only in the case of Karen Ray in House 95 was there more of a “macro” story in play, with the moderate Ray losing to the more conservative Grey Mills in a close, tough-fought GOP primary.

I think that the 2008 legislative-election cycle will be more like 2002 than 2004 and 2006. The latter two were typified by Republican infighting and surprising Democratic gains in GOP territory. This year, the primaries have been far less interesting than the general election will be. Obviously, 2008 looks to be a difficult year for the GOP nationally, but in North Carolina the situation is a bit more fluid. Many voters are unhappy with the direction of the state and what they still perceive as an entrenched culture of corruption in Raleigh. I suspect that for a variety of reasons, the Perdue-McCrory race will be the most competitive gubernatorial race North Carolina has seen since 1984. More importantly, and I know this sounds a bit funny but it’s true, the Democrats had such a good cycle in 2006 that their opportunities for further gains in the General Assembly are limited. Unfortunately, too few House and Senate districts are competitive. Democrats hold most of them, plus a few historically Republican seats. They’ll probably play defense well, but it will be mostly defense, not offense.

All right, let’s get to some races. It’s early, admittedly, but these seem to be the matchups that capital insiders have tapped as potentially competitive in the fall:

House 2: Democrat Tim Spear (i) vs. Republican Chris East.
House 3: Democrat Alice Underhill (i) vs. Republican Norman Sanderson.
House 4: Democrat Russell Tucker (i) vs. Republican Duane Vestal.
House 9: Democrat Marian McLawhorn (i) vs. Republican Ginny Cooper.
House 10: Democrat Van Braxton (i) vs. Republican Steve LaRoque.
House 25: Democrat Randy Stewart vs. Republican W.B. Bullock.
House 36: Democrat Al Swanstrom vs. Republican Nelson Dollar (i).
House 41: Democrat Ty Harrell (i) vs. Republican Bryan Gossage.
House 51: Democrat Jimmy Love (i) vs. Republican Linda Shook.
House 53: Democrat Joe Tart vs. Republican David Lewis (i).
House 63: Democrat Alice Bordsen (i) vs. Republican Celo Faucette.
House 86: Democrat Walt Church (i) vs. Republican Hugh Blackwell.
House 87: Democrat John Forlines vs. Republican Edgar Starnes (i).
House 88: Democrat Ray Warren (i) vs. Republican Mark Hollo.
House 93: Democrat Cullie Tarleton (i) vs. Republican Dan Soucek.
House 99: Democrat Nick Mackey (!!) vs. Republican Dempsey Miller.
House 116: Democrat Jane Whilden vs. Republican Tim Moffitt.
House 119: Democrat Phil Haire (i) vs. Republican Dodie Allen.

Senate 5: Either Democrat Don Davis or Kathy Taft vs. Republican Louis Pate.
Senate 8: Democrat R.C. Soles (i) vs. Republican Betty Fennell.
Senate 9: Democrat Julia Boseman (i) vs. Republican Michael Lee.
Senate 22: Democrat Abraham Oudeh vs. Republican Harris Blake (i).
Senate 24: Democrat Tony Foriest (i) vs. Republican Rick Gunn.
Senate 43: Democrat David Hoyle (i) vs. Republican Kathy Harrington.
Senate 45: Democrat Steve Goss (i) vs. Republican Jerry Butler.
Senate 46: Democrat Phil Melton vs. Republican Debbie Clary.
Senate 47: Democrat Joe Sam Queen (i) vs. Republican Keith Presnell.
Senate 50: Democrat John Snow (i) vs. Republican Susan Pons.

This list is merely an initial one, and will certainly change in the coming months. Some of these races look competitive on the numbers but will drop off as challengers (typically) fail to raise sufficient funds to communicate on the air. A few surprise additions to the list may also occur. I’ll add that while these are the seats political insiders are talking about, a couple of them strike me as stretches.

At the moment, however, we are looking at 18 House seats out of 120 and 10 Senate seats out of 50 that could conceivably be in play. You can thank Mr. Gerry Mander for this unfortunate news. Five of these 28 key races are rematches from 2006. Only six are currently held by the Republicans, thus my reference to Democrats playing mostly defense. And few are in North Carolina’s major urban areas – nine are down east or on the coast, three are in the Sandhills, two are in Wake, two in the Charlotte area, two are in the Alamance area, and 10 are in the mountains.

The races for governor and other statewide posts will be settled mostly in urban and suburban counties. But the balance in the North Carolina General Assembly will be settled mostly in the rural east and mountain west. Neat, huh?

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.