RALEIGH – Here’s an intriguing angle to keep in mind as you follow the last couple of weeks of the 2002 electoral primaries in North Carolina. Depending on whom is nominated for federal offices, African-American turnout in the November election could vary significantly – likely determining the outcome in many state and local races, as well.
Most important here is the U.S. Senate race, where Democratic primary voters will choose among four major candidates – former N.C. House Speaker Dan Blue, former Clinton aide and Wall Street banker Erksine Bowles, former Durham city council member Cynthia Brown, and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall. While there are a number of factors at work in this primary contest, race is never far from the surface.
Both in 1990 and in 1996, Democrats nominated former Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt, the first black mayor of North Carolina’s largest city, to run against Republican Jesse Helms. He lost both times, though not by much. Some have concluded from this that North Carolina whites are not yet ready to vote for a black candidate for statewide office. Others have (I think rightly) concluded that Gantt’s problem was Gantt, not race, and that he had the misfortune of running against a force of nature in the chronically underestimated Helms.
In any event, some black leaders and liberals in the party are blaming the “we can’t win that way” argument for the fact that their man, Dan Blue, isn’t the Senate frontrunner. The black press has been full of stories questioning Bowles’ background, his business connections, his history of membership in exclusive clubs, etc. Mostly on the editorial pages, they have emphasized that Blue’s candidacy would energize a key base of Democratic voters and represent yet another opportunity to make history in North Carolina.
The Blue partisans, I believe, have a point – strictly in political terms. Elections in non-presidential years are influenced to a large degree by differentials in turnout among base voters in each party. It is possible for Democrats to experience a major train wreck in November if 1) Bowles is nominated over Blue; 2) three strong black candidates for the Democratic nomination in the 1st Congressional District split the African-American vote, thus giving the nod to Sam Davis, a white county commissioner from Elizabeth City; and 3) black state senator Bill Martin of Greensboro falls short in his quest for the 13th Congressional District nomination.
This perfect storm would lead, I believe, to significant disaffection in the black community. As arguably the most loyal constituency in the Democratic Party, many blacks would believe that they were unfairly denied the honor of carrying the party standard in key races. Some would note that it was the intransigence of state Democratic leaders in the legislative redistricting case that led to the elimination of a run-off primary this year, thus setting the stage for what they perceive as unwelcome outcomes in the 1st and 13th districts. Of course, many would also simply view the white nominees as less attractive on a variety of issues.
Whatever the reason, get-out-the-vote efforts could stall without heroic efforts by Blue and others to support the nominees. The damage could well extend to legislative races – especially competitive seats in such areas as Greenville, New Bern, Jacksonville, Rocky Mount, Wilmington, Greensboro, Fayetteville, and Asheville – as well as pivotal at-large commissioner races in counties such as Mecklenburg and Wake.
I still think that the speaker can come from behind, and that Martin has a shot in the 13th (the 1st is a trickier proposition). I am confident that there are more than a few smart Democrats who are hoping that they do.