RALEIGH – When it comes to thankless, arduous jobs that someone has to do, I’m as disinclined as the next person. I don’t like washing my windows or scrubbing my bathtubs. I don’t like spring cleaning. I don’t like weeding. But at least until the Little Conqueror and the Little General are ready to shoulder the load, I do them.
Similarly, I have found it impossible to off-load my traditional responsibility at Carolina Journal to track North Carolina’s state and local political races. Since 1998, I’ve provided readers with overviews of key electoral contests to watch. In part, I work through the process so I can offer at least halfway-informed commentary about particular races when called on. But, like the monthly ritual of spraying parts of my yard for creeping flora, I do it primarily because it has to be done.
Thus setting the performance bar extremely low, I now proceed with Part 1 of my checklist of the 2006 legislative primaries that political observers are watching most closely. Today’s topic is the Senate. My approach here is to divide the primaries into two groups: those with significant implications for the November general elections, and those without such implications but offering other insights or trends.
November Battlegrounds
Down east, the key race is the 2nd District, centered on New Bern. Democrat Scott Thomas held this competitive seat through several cycles, but resigned this year to become a district attorney. C.W. “Pete” Bland got the nomination to finish out Thomas’ term, and will be the Democratic nominee. On the Republican side, longtime House member Jean Preston of Carteret County faces businessman and educator Norman Sanderson of Pamlico. For years, Republicans deployed a significant amount of their limited funds in GOP challenges to Thomas, to little avail. This year, at least, they won’t face an entrenched incumbent. But Bland, a longtime sheriff of Craven County and former chairman of the county commission, will be a formidable candidate nonetheless.
In the Piedmont, Senate 24 in Alamance and Caswell counties features a straight-up rematch. As in 2004, Tony Foriest and Tim Purgason are battleing for the Democratic nomination. Foriest won in 2004 but lost the general to incumbent Republican and conservative stalwart Hugh Webster. The latter faces a primary challenge from Phoebe Harrison, though I don’t see much suspense in the outcome. As is the case in Senate 2, the 24th District should be competitive every election based on the underlying numbers. But Webster won easily the last go-round. This is the kind of race that makes everyone’s list, but in practice the incumbent goes in heavily favored.
In the mountains, the 50th Senate District comprises the western tip of the state and, by the numbers, is a moderately Republican seat. Bob Carpenter represented the district many years, but in 2004 was upended by Democrat and former judge John Snow in one of the cycle’s biggest surprises. Snow benefited from a huge influx of funds by Senate leader Marc Basnight’s organization, giving him a $400,000 budget while Carpenter spent only about $120,000. Expect something similar in 2006. On the Republican side, a spirited primary involves four candidates, none of them in-name-only. Mark Crawford, a former state representative, lost his reelection bid in 2002 to Rep. Bruce Goforth, who still represents the 115th District. Crawford lost a bid for Buncombe County Commission in 2004 and now seeks the Senate nomination in 2006. So does Rick Bagley, a financial planner and civic leader from Murphy; Ken McKim of Highlands, a young conservative activist and co-owner of a construction company; and Sue Lynn Ledford, coordinator of school nursing with the Cherokee County Public Schools and another activist with local conservative organizations.
Other Interesting Primaries
In District 3, Sen. Clark Jenkins facing a Democratic-primary challenge from former Rep. Shelly Willingham. This is another rematch from 2004. Most Democrats in the district are black, as is Willingham, and the not-so-subtle suggestion is that the district ought to have representation reflective of that fact. Similar primary contests, black candidates challenging white incumbents in Democratic primaries, occurred in eastern House races in 2004 and are again in 2006. In Willingham’s case, his 2004 effort was not strong enough to please some of his supporters, who shared his goal of replacing a white senator with a black one. That doesn’t bode well this year. The Democratic winner is the November winner.
In District 31, Forsyth County, the late Sen. Ham Horton left a vacancy that three Republicans are attempting to fill, formally if not figuratively. Two of the candidates, Pete Brunstetter and Gloria Whisenhunt, are former and current chairs respectively of the Forsyth County Commission. Businessman and conservative activist Nathan Tabor ran a high-profile campaign for the Republican nomination for Congress that was eventually won by state Sen. Virginia Foxx, now Congresswoman Foxx. The point being, all three can raise money and run major campaigns. All three are. Whisenhunt and Tabor are running to the right of Brunstetter, the only one to favor corporate incentives such as the package Dell Computers scored in choosing Forsyth for a new plant. The GOP winner is the November winner.
In District 45 – comprising the northwest mountain counties of Ashe, Watauga, Wilkes, and Alexander – longtime Republican incumbent John Garwood faces a serious challenge from David Blust, a Watauga county commissioner and brother of Rep. John Blust of Greensboro. Garwood was one of two GOP senators who didn’t participate in the vote creating a North Carolina state lottery. Absent with an injury, Garwood could have paired his vote with a lottery supporter, thus keeping the bill from passing, but did not. Blust is challenging Garwood on this decision and other issues important to conservative primary voters. The GOP winner will almost certainly defeat Democrat Steve Goss in the fall in this solidly Republican district.
Lastly, let me hasten to add that there are a number of other key races that will determine the partisan makeup after the November elections. But they don’t have competitive primaries, so I’ll wait until much later to run them down. In brief, however, I will say that the current 29-21 Democratic majority could move a little bit either way depending on how well Republicans raise money to compete with Basnight and how statewide and national trends affect voter turnout in particular districts in this off-year election cycle. The local details matter: Republicans won most of the votes cast for state senate across North Carolina in 2002 and 2004, and managed close to 50 percent of the vote in 1996, 1998, and 2000. Yet during this entire period GOP seats ranged from 30 percent to 44 percent of the total. Al Gore, stop measuring that glacier and call your office.
Tomorrow: 2006 House primaries to watch.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.