RALEIGH — There is a scenario for John Edwards winning the Democratic presidential nomination.
No, I’m serious. I still think his most likely fate is to be tapped for the veep slot, but the situation is obviously in flux. Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry should probably be the frontrunner at this point. He’s got presence, experience, his Vietnam narrative. He’s got his wife’s money. He’s from next door to New Hampshire.
But Kerry’s flaws as a candidate are becoming evident. He’s undisciplined. He has an overweening ego (yes, all candidates have to be self-confident, but not recklessly so). He has to split his New England base with Connecticut’s Joe Lieberman and Vermont’s Howard Dean. And this tripe about “regime change” in America is going to cost him, I predict, as he leaves the confines of Washington and Brookline and enters the real world.
Lieberman, for his part, is well-known but boring. Dean makes leftists’ hearts flutter, but he frankly looks like a moron given what’s happened in Iraq (this amuses because Dean has an even higher opinion of himself and his mental acuity than Kerry does). Richard Gephardt lost ground with Democrats in direct proportion to his lost ground to Republicans in the U.S. House. Al Sharpton is . . .
Let’s save space.
So what’s Edwards’ scenario? I think that he has to have a decent showing in Iowa and New Hampshire — 3rd or maybe even 4th will do. Then he must solidly and convincingly win South Carolina (and come in 1st or 2nd in any other primaries that might move up to the same day as South Carolina’s). Democrats in other key states must see Edwards as liberal enough for the base but salable to moderates and swings.
Though a South Carolina native, Edwards is by no means a shoo-in there. Right now, in fact, he’s trailing several other candidates in the Palmetto State. And even when voters start paying attention to the race, and hear his accent and pedigree, there are no guarantees.
That’s why an upcoming event is so important for Edwards. Next month, the nine main Democratic candidates will meet at the University of South Carolina for a debate, the first one to be nationally televised. George Stephanopolous will moderate, unfortunately. It will be show time for John Edwards, and he must wow ’em.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.